一、外刊閱讀：小貓釣魚
U.S. economy is now in recession, UCLA Anderson Forecast says
A. affected B. rate C. proportion D. predicting E. leisure F. significantly
G. modestly H. shrink I. severe J. consideration K. supply
Forget predictions that the U.S. economy will enter a recession(衰退) this year due to the coronavirus pandemic — the UCLA Anderson Forecast says it has happened already.
On Monday, the school revised a forecast it issued just last week that stopped short of (31) ______ a recession. The revised version says the economy has already stopped growing and will remain in recession through the end of September.
This is the first time in the 68-year history of the forecast that it has been updated before its planned quarterly update.
Economists at the UCLA Anderson School of Management — the university’s graduate business school — said they revised the forecast after incorporating a review of how the 1957–58 H2N2 influenza pandemic (32) ______ the U.S. economy.
The year started solidly, but the forecast predicted that rapid effects on the economy from the virus would slow first-quarter economic growth to a rate of 0.4% and that the economy would (33) ______ at a 6.5% rate in the second quarter and a 1.9% rate in the third quarter.
Assuming the pandemic ends this summer and supply chains are restored, the forecast predicts the resumption of normal economic activity and an economic growth (34) ______ of 4% in the fourth quarter.
Because California has a higher(35) ______ of its economic activity linked to tourism and trans-Pacific transportation, the forecast predicts that the recession will be slightly more (36) ______ in the state.
California is expected to shed more than 280,000 of its payroll jobs, with (37) ______, hospitality and transportation sector jobs accounting for more than one-third of those. That would drive up the unemployment rate to 6.3% by the end of this year, with effects continuing into 2021, when the unemployment rate is expected to average 6.6%.
In the forecast released last week, UCLA economists tried to take into (38) ______ the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. That forecast had still expected U.S. GDP to grow(39) ______ in the second and third quarters.
It said then its predictions were based on the midpoint between the coronavirus having a very minimal effect and, on the other end, the virus causing a recession. It also said the strength of the California economy would help buffer the state from short-term interruptions in (40) ______ chains and travel.
Since then, the disruptions to the economy have jumped.（381）
二、參考答案DAHBC IEJGK
三、原文銜接
四、核心詞彙
affected rate proportion predicting leisure significantly
modestly shrink severe consideration supply
recession
predicted
disruptions
interruptions
accounting
account
accounted
accounting
accounts
unaccounted
affect
affected
affecting
affects
unaffected
consider
consideration
considerations
considered
considering
consideringly
considers
reconsider
reconsideration
reconsiderations
reconsidered
reconsidering
reconsiders
unconsidered
disrupt
disrupted
disrupting
disruption
disruptions
disruptive
disruptively
disrupts
interrupt
interrupted
interrupting
interruption
interruptions
interrupts
uninterrupted
uninterruptedly
leisure
leisured
leisureliness
leisurely
modest
immodest
immodestly
modestly
modesty
predict
predictability
predictable
predictably
predicted
predicting
prediction
predictions
predictive
predictor
predictors
predicts
unpredictability
unpredictable
unpredictably
proportion
proportional
proportionality
proportionally
proportionate
proportionately
proportioned
proportions
rate
rateable
rated
rater
raters
rates
rating
ratings
recession
recessional
recessionary
recessions
severe
severely
severeness
severer
severest
severity
shrink
shrank
shrinkable
shrinkage
shrinkages
shrinking
shrinks
shrunk
shrunken
significant
insignificant
insignificantly
significantly
supply
resupplied
resupplies
resupply
resupplying
supplied
supplier
suppliers
supplies
supplying
五、原文翻譯
Forget predictions that the U.S. economy will enter a recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic — the UCLA Anderson Forecast says it has happened already.
忘了對美國經濟今年將因“冠狀病毒”大流行而進入衰退的預測吧——加州大學洛杉磯分校安德森分校的預測說，這種情況已經發生了。
On Monday, the school revised a forecast it issued just last week that stopped short of predicting a recession. The revised version says the economy has already stopped growing and will remain in recession through the end of September.
週一，該校修訂了上週發佈的一份預測，但沒有預測經濟衰退。修訂版說，經濟已經停止增長，到9月底仍將處於衰退狀態。
This is the first time in the 68-year history of the forecast that it has been updated before its planned quarterly update.
這是68年曆史上第一次在計劃的季度更新之前更新預測。
Economists at the UCLA Anderson School of Management — the university’s graduate business school — said they revised the forecast after incorporating a review of how the 1957–58 H2N2 influenza pandemic affected the U.S. economy.
加州大學洛杉磯分校安德森管理學院的經濟學家表示，他們在納入了對1957-58年H2N2流感大流行如何影響美國經濟的回顧後，修改了預測。
The year started solidly, but the forecast predicted that rapid effects on the economy from the virus would slow first-quarter economic growth to a rate of 0.4% and that the economy would shrink at a 6.5% rate in the second quarter and a 1.9% rate in the third quarter.
今年開局穩健，但預測稱，病毒對經濟的快速影響將使第一季度經濟增長放緩至0.4%，第二季度經濟將以6.5%和1.9%的速度萎縮。
Assuming the pandemic ends this summer and supply chains are restored, the forecast predicts the resumption of normal economic activity and an economic growth rate of 4% in the fourth quarter.
假設疫情今年夏天結束，供應鏈恢復，預測第四季度經濟將恢復正常活動，經濟增長率將達到4%。
Because California has a higher proportion of its economic activity linked to tourism and trans-Pacific transportation, the forecast predicts that the recession will be slightly more severe in the state.
由於加州經濟活動中與旅遊業和跨太平洋運輸業相關的比例較高，預測預測加州經濟衰退將略為嚴重。
California is expected to shed more than 280,000 of its payroll jobs, with leisure, hospitality and transportation sector jobs accounting for more than one-third of those. That would drive up the unemployment rate to 6.3% by the end of this year, with effects continuing into 2021, when the unemployment rate is expected to average 6.6%.
加州預計將裁員28萬多人，其中休閒、酒店和交通部門的工作崗位佔三分之一以上。這將推動失業率在今年年底前升至6.3%，其影響將持續到2021年，屆時失業率預計平均為6.6%。
In the forecast released last week, UCLA economists tried to take into consideration the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. That forecast had still expected U.S. GDP to grow modestly in the second and third quarters.
在上週發佈的預測中，加州大學洛杉磯分校的經濟學家試圖考慮到“冠狀病毒”爆發帶來的經濟影響。這一預測仍預期美國第二和第三季度GDP將溫和增長。
It said then its predictions were based on the midpoint between the coronavirus having a very minimal effect and, on the other end, the virus causing a recession. It also said the strength of the California economy would help buffer the state from short-term interruptions in supply chains and travel.
據說，當時的預測是基於“冠狀病毒”的影響非常小和另一方面導致經濟衰退的病毒之間的中點。它還表示，加州經濟的強勁將有助於緩衝該州供應鏈和旅遊業的短期中斷。
Since then, the disruptions to the economy have jumped.
從那時起，對經濟的破壞就急劇增加。
（381）
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