疫情危机下，特朗普还能连任吗？

翻译 | 艾丽娜

The coronavirus' relentless spread is exposing Donald Trump to a question no president wants to hear: Is he up to the job?

冠状病毒的持续蔓延让唐纳德·特朗普

面临一个任何总统都不愿意听到的问题:他能胜任这份工作吗?

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

From: CNN

For supporters and opponents alike, questions about Trump's basic competence as a manager of the federal government have taken a back seat during his presidency to the fierce controversies over his personal behavior, his language (particularly on issues relating to race and culture) and his policy agenda.

无论支持者还是反对者都认为，在特朗普担任总统期间，有关他作为联邦政府管理者的基本能力的问题，已经让位于围绕他个人行为、语言(尤其是在种族和文化问题上)和政策议程的激烈争议。

Trump revives fight with New York governor amid coronavirus crisis

在冠状病毒危机中，特朗普恢复了与纽约州州长的斗争

"It's what happened with Jimmy Carter in the hostage thing: [The public concluded] he's incompetent, he doesn't know what he was doing," says Matthew Dowd, a former senior strategist for Bush. "Once that was happening, it didn't matter what else he did. The same was true of George W. Bush, once the Katrina thing crystallized it. Once those things happened neither one of them ever recovered."

前布什的高级战略家马修•多德（Matthew Dowd）说:“这就是吉米•卡特（Jimmy Carter）在人质事件中所发生的事情:(公众得出结论)他很无能，他不知道自己在做什么。”一旦这样的事情发生了，他做什么都不重要了。布什(George W. Bush)也是如此，卡特里娜飓风使其具体化。一旦这些事情发生了，他们就再也没有恢复过来。”

Trump hasn't yet reached that tipping point: Polls so far show that public attitudes about his handling of the outbreak almost completely track the long-standing divisions around his overall job performance. But Democrats believe the cascading risk created by the virus is highlighting aspects of Trump's personality and management style that Americans were more willing to tolerate before the nation faced such an acute and disruptive challenge.

特朗普还没有达到那个临界点:到目前为止的民调显示，公众对他处理疫情的态度几乎完全符合围绕他整体工作表现的长期分歧。但民主党人认为，该病毒造成的连锁风险突显出特朗普的个性和管理风格，在美国面临如此尖锐和破坏性的挑战之前，美国人更愿意容忍这些方面。

Ideology vs. competence

意识VS.能力

The unprecedented scale and reach of the coronavirus challenge will test the assumption among many political experts that in our highly polarized political era, ideological and cultural affinity is eclipsing results in office as the principal determinant of a president's support.

冠状病毒挑战的空前规模和影响范围将考验许多政治专家的一种假设，即在我们高度两极化的政治时代，意识形态和文化亲和力正使总统的执政成果黯然失色，成为决定总统支持率的主要因素。

Since the 1990s, political strategists and political scientists alike have concluded that more and more Americans are permanently locked into each party's coalition, with fewer swing voters available for either side to woo.

自上世纪90年代以来，政治战略家和政治学家都得出结论，越来越多的美国人永久地锁定在两党联盟中，而能够争取到任何一方的摇摆选民都越来越少。

In effect, that judgment means that the share of voters who support a president based on his ideology and cultural identityis growing, while the portion that bases its decisions on thepresident's performance is shrinking. In terms of the public's approval of a president, results such as the state of the economy or his handling of a crisis "are probably less important now than they used to be, because with increasing polarization everything comes down to partisanship and policy agreement," says Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University.

实际上，这种判断意味着，基于总统的意识形态和文化身份支持他的选民比例在上升，而基于总统的表现

Trump has embraced and intensified that polarization more unreservedly than any president before him. He has governed in a manner that concedes almost nothing on any major policy issue to any constituencies outside of the Republican coalition, and he has expressed, often with lacerating ferocity, the anxieties and resentments of the voters most uneasy about cultural, demographic and economic change (as when he told four House Democratic women of color to "go back" where they came from). Only a few hours after he had appeared notably more restrained at his news conference, Trump turned back to those racially inflammatory tactics by describing the outbreak in a tweet as "the Chinese virus."

特朗普比他之前的任何总统都更毫无保留地接受并加剧了这种两极分化。在任何重大政策问题上，他都几乎不向共和党联盟以外的任何选民做出任何让步, 他表达了对文化、人口和经济变化最为不安的选民的焦虑和不满，而且往往带有尖酸的愤怒(如当他告诉四个众议院民主党少数族裔女性“滚回”他们该回的地方)。就在几个小时前，他在新闻发布会上表现得更为克制，结束之后他又回到了那些种族煽动性的策略上，他在推特上称此次疫情为“中国病毒”。

In a recent national survey by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, fully 87% of Republicans -- and almost two-thirds of all whites without college degrees-- said that Trump fights for what they believe in.

无党派机构皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)最近进行的一项全国性调查显示，87%的共和党人——以及几乎三分之二没有大学学位的白人——表示，特朗普为他们的信仰而战。

Most observers believe that through this approach Trump has forged a bond with his political base that will prove impervious to almost any questions about his response to the coronavirus outbreak or the economic slowdown that appears certain to accompany it.

大多数观察人士认为，通过这种方式，特朗普与他的政治基础建立了一种纽带，这种纽带将证明，他对冠状病毒爆发或随之而来的经济放缓的反应几乎不会受到任何质疑。

But most experts in both parties agree the political base that passionately embraces Trump's rhetoric and agenda is probably closer to 40% than 50% of the electorate. To win reelection, Dowd notes, Trump needs another "8 to 10 points" of ambivalent voters who may be conflicted about his behavior or policy priorities but have been satisfied with the results of his presidency, particularly on the economy. Those are the voters, Dowd argues, who "do put a premium on competence."

但两党大多数专家都认为，热情拥护特朗普的言论和议程的政治基础可能接近选民的40%，到50%。多德指出，要赢得连任，特朗普还需要“8到10个百分点”的摇摆不定的选民，他们可能对特朗普的行为或政策重点感到矛盾，但对他的总统任期成果感到满意，尤其是在经济方面。多德认为，这些选民“确实重视能力”。

Doubts are hard to recover from

疑虑很难消除

Trump has certainly provided voters with plenty of reasons to question his competence since the first US coronavirus case was diagnosed in late January. He has repeatedly delivered upbeat messages about the course of the outbreak that have been contravened by public health officials and events themselves, and he has offered misleading information on everything from the availability of tests to the capacity of a Google-designed website to help Americans find care. Above all, the administration has suffered a catastrophic failure in developing and deploying the capacity to test large numbers of Americans for the virus; those tests, the administration says, are rolling out in greater quantity this week, but that is two months after the initial diagnosis.

自1月下旬美国确诊首例冠状病毒病例以来，特朗普无疑为选民提供了充足的理由来质疑他的能力。他多次就疫情的发展过程发表乐观的信息，但公共卫生官员和事件本身却与之相悖。他还在很多方面提供误导性信息，从检测的有效性，到由谷歌设计的帮助美国人找到医疗服务的网站的信息。最重要的是，政府在开发和部署大量美国人进行病毒检测的能力方面遭遇了灾难性的失败；政府表示，这些检测将在本周大量推出，但那是在初步诊断两个月之后。

A question of timing

时机的问题

"I just can't recall anything where the basic facts of anything so fundamental have to go through a political filter and the perception [of what's happening] depends on which side of the fence you are on," said Kettl.

科特尔说:“我想不起来有什么事情是如此重要的事情，它的基本事实必须经过政治过滤，人们对发生的事情的看法取决于你站在立场的哪一边。”

These poll results show just how difficult it is for any new information to cross the long-standing political chasmbetween red and blue, which has widened further under Trump. Yet it may be premature to conclude that questions about his handling of the virus, and the likely economic fallout, will not ultimately affect his standing.

这些民调结果显示，任何新信息要跨越红蓝两党之间长期存在的政治鸿沟是多么困难。在特朗普执政期间，这一鸿沟进一步扩大。然而，现在下结论说有关他对病毒的处理以及可能的经济后果的问题不会最终影响他的地位，可能还为时过早。

Ferguson, an adviser to Navigator Research, a Democratic organization that studies public opinion and messaging, says the crisis is forcing attention to many aspects of Trump's behavior that voters remain most uncomfortable about. The group's polling, he says, has found that most Americans believe that Trump's response has been incompetent, untrustworthyand more concerned about protecting his political interests than public health.

研究民意和信息的民主党组（Navigator Research）的顾问弗格森(Ferguson)说，这场危机迫使人们关注特朗普行为的很多方面，选民们仍然对这些方面感到最不舒服。他说，该组织的民意调查发现，大多数美国人认为特朗普的回应是

"Voters had preexisting notions about Trump on his character, his competence and his health care agenda, and this crisis has confirmed their worst fears about all three," Ferguson argues. "More of the country has doubts about his ability to do the job than at any point since he was sworn in."

“选民们对特朗普的性格、能力和医保议程都有先入之见，而这场危机证实了他们对这三件事情最严重的担忧，”弗格森说。“自他宣誓就职以来，对他的工作能力表示怀疑的人比任何时候都多。”

Ultimately, even in a highly polarized era, Trump may prove hostage to events. Perceptions about his handling of the crisis today may not look the same if more Americans see tangible impacts in their own lives, especially beyond the big Democratic-leaning metropolitan areas that already have responded most aggressively. Public health officials warn that the outbreak may not peak for weeks. At best that means disruption of ordinary life will continue well into the spring; at worst, it could mean chaotic scenes of hospitals overrun as the caseload and death roll rise.

最终，即使是在一个高度两极分化的时代，特朗普也可能被证明是事件的牺牲品。如果更多的美国人看到他对自己生活的切实影响，尤其是在那些已经做出了最积极反应、倾向于民主党的大城市以外，人们对他处理危机的看法可能会有所不同。公共卫生官员警告说，疫情可能在几周内不会达到高峰。这最可能意味着，对普通生活的干扰将持续到春季;在最坏的情况下，这可能意味着随着病例量和死亡人数的上升，医院的混乱场面会泛滥成灾。

The political arguments over Trump's response, Kettl says, "in a sense, are not going to matter in a week or two, because the facts will bear out which side of the fence turns out to be right. If it turns out what the President has said is counter to what the virus decides to do, that could very well be his Katrina moment but multiplied 1,000 times over. The (virus) itself will decide which side is right on this one."

科特说，围绕特朗普回应的政治争论“在某种意义上说，在一两周内不会有什么影响，因为事实将证明哪一方是正确的。”如果事实证明总统所说的与病毒做的相反，那很可能是他的灾难时刻，且会严重1000倍。病毒会决定哪一方是正确的。”

閱讀更多 浙大傳媒星空 的文章

關鍵字: 詹姆斯·厄尔·卡特 突显出 传染病