译者 王为
文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明
"GREEN" BUBBLE CANDIDATES
by Kevin Muir
The other day I asked readers to send in their favourite candidates for what I believe will be the next mania - "green" technology.
前几天，我请各位读者推荐有哪些股票属于我认为即将在未来引发市场疯狂的“绿色科技”板块。
When I wrote the original article, "THE COMING GREEN BUBBLE", I mistakenly conflated ESG compliant companies with "green" technology companies. Just to make sure there is no confusion - I am bullish on "green" companies. I realize these companies will most likely also score high on the ESG scale, but it's really the "green" part that attracts me.
我在写以前那篇题为“绿色经济泡沫现身股票市场？”的文章之时，误将遵从了ESG经营理念的公司与“绿色科技”类的公司混为一谈。我知道按照ESG的标准来衡量这些公司很可能会得很高的分，但真正吸引我的是这些企业身上的“绿色经济”标签。
Next point - I am late to this story. As the names came pouring in, I realized many of these stocks have already run a long way.
还要强调一点，我这篇文章写的有点晚了。随着大家推荐的公司数量不断增加，我发现其中很多公司的股价已经涨了很长一段时间了。
But don't let that get you down. Bubbles always go way farther than most would imagine. I suspect this is early innings.
但是不必感到灰心，泡沫行情持续的时间之长总是超出大多数人的想象，我猜当前只是大行情的初期阶段。
Not only that, I am pairing this with a short position in FAANGM type names which are over-extended, over-owned and facing fundamental headwinds as society rethinks the role technology plays in our lives. These traditional technology names are often up even more than the "green" names,so on a relative basis, I feel comfortable with this pairs trade.
不仅于此，我打算在做多“绿色经济”概念股的同时做空FAANGM（脸书、苹果、亚马逊等）之类股价已经涨幅过大、受追捧程度过高以及基本面存在不利因素的科技巨头的股票，因为整个社会都在反思科技巨头在民众日常生活中所扮演的角色。很多情况下，这些传统科技型企业的股价涨幅甚至比“绿色经济”概念股还大，因此相对而言，我更喜欢这种多空对冲的交易策略。
I am by no means suggesting you run out and buy this "green" list. However, it's advisable to start to get familiar with these stories. The purpose of this post is to help discover some potential names for the next bubble.
我绝对没有让各位赶紧照着这份绿色经济概念股的名单抢购股票的意思，但我认为从现在开始应该多关注一下这些股票身上的故事，本文的目的是希望可以帮助各位从中挑选出几只能在未来的泡沫行情中脱颖而出的股票。
Let's start with my favourite "green" name - Brookfield Renewable Partners (symbol: BEP). No, my partiality is not because the CEO is from my prairie hometown of Winnipeg, but because Brookfield is a superbly well-run shop and ends up being an active manager of renewable assets that will do a much better job exploiting opportunities than I ever hope to.
先从我比较青睐的绿色经济概念股Brookfield Renewable Partners开始，该股的代码为BEP，我之所以偏爱这只票并不是因为这家公司的CEO是我的同乡，也来自位于加拿大草原上的温尼伯市，而是因为该公司被经营得井井有条，并成了一家再生能源资产的主动型管理者，在寻找业务机会方面做得比我所期望的要好得多，以下为该公司的股价走势。
Now that we have gotten my pick out of the way, let's move on to the reader submissions. Before we start, let me say a big thank you to everyone who shared their thoughts. I really appreciate it.
现在你们已经知道我看好的是哪支票了，下面看看读者们推荐的都是那些股票吧。在开始之前，我得先好好谢谢各位分享观点的读者，真的很感谢你们的积极参与。
Without further ado, here it is.
废话少说，走起来。
Let's start with my favourite idea. It's from "Put Seller":
先从我比较喜欢的荐股思路开始，下面这个建议来自推主 "Put Seller"：
选股要看ETF基金的资金流入情况，只需看看代码为TAN和LIT的ETF基金持股的前三名都是哪些股票就行了
I love this idea. Those were two popular ETFs that were often mentioned, but I have included the holdings to foster ideas about individual names:
这个思路我喜欢，TAN和LIT这两只ETF基金很有人气，常被人提起，但我列出了基金的持仓情况以找出哪些个股值得重点关注：
And now, with no real order to the chaos that was my twitter stream, here are some more comments with different names:
下面是其他人推荐的各种股票：以下是长长的荐股名单，提到了好多的股票和ETF基金的代码
There were some folks who preferred the old-fashioned way of email, so I thought I would include a few of those as well:
还有一些人喜欢用发邮件这种传统的方式来沟通，因此不能把他们落下：
Hi Kevin,
I have three “green” stocks for you;
Xebec (XEBEF), a Canadian company involved in renewable natural gas; in the sweet spot where ESG and renewable mandates converge. The stock is up a lot, but the future looks bright.
Envision Solar (EVSI), makes a solar-powered EV charger, gaining traction with cities and universities that have EV fleets.
BioHiTech Global (BHTG), technology that converts waste into an EPA recognized solid recovered fuel (SFR) which can be sold as fuel for cement kilns; their process can reduce landfill waste by up to 80%.
These three small companies are on the front lines of the renewables movement. Xebec is further along in terms of revenues, profitability and survivability, but all three are interesting.
Best,
嗨，凯文！
我也给你推荐三只“绿色经济”概念股：
1、Xebec公司，代码为XEBEF，是一家加拿大企业，业务与可再生的天然气有关，好处是既符合ESG概念，也属于可再生能源概念，股价已经涨了不少，但未来的前景看上去很不错；
2、Envision太阳能，代码为EVSI，制造太阳能电动汽车的充电器，该公司获得各大城市和大学的青睐，这些单位有很多的电动汽车；
3、BioHiTech Global，代码为BHTG，其核心技术是将废弃物转化成美国环保署认可的一种固体可回收燃料，可作为水泥窑的燃料，将需要占地填埋的废弃物总量减少80%以上。
这三家都是小公司，在可再生行业里均名列前茅，其中Xebec在营收、盈利能力和 生存能力方面表现得更加突出，但这三家企业都挺不错。
此致敬礼！
I have two, one bought in May 2019 at €19 (S92.DE), and one recently bought (WCH.DE) at €60 per share. Both are still good to enter, me thinks. Here's what I got into my system on those two.我也推荐两个票，都是德国的股票，其中一个是2019年5月份买的，每股10欧元，代码S92.DE；还有一个是最近买的，每股60欧元，代码WCH.DE。我认为这两只票还可以继续买。
S92.DE
OPTIONS - QUALITY
From solar energy inverters maker to now full energy service provider: solar inverters for grid connected PV systems; off-grid power supply + backup BYD/SMA battery-storage systems; combine hardware + software into digital energy management solutions (ennexOS platform, SPOT power trading, Design PRO planning); large PV power plants fee based Operational + Maintenance management. 1500 patents. Global solar inverters market leader. Sales EMEA 44→48%, Asia 32→33%, Americas 24→19%. Inverters: 65→75 GW installed, 1,5Mln online portal registered devices= huge data set to analyse + implement new energy management systems + sell new services globally.
S92.DE这家公司从一家制造太阳能转换器的厂商转型成了完全从事能源服务的企业，业务范围包括：光伏并网发电系统；离网供电+备用比亚迪/SMA电池存储系统等，该企业是全球太阳能转换器行业中的领头羊。总销售额中北美以外发达国家的占比从44→48%，亚洲各国32→33%，北美24→19%。太阳能转换器的已安装功率65→75吉瓦，在线太阳能入口登记设备达150万台，意味着有海量般的数据可供分析，可应用新的能源管理系统，服务收入来自全球。Global demand in € terms to be flat till 2021, fierce price pressure largely erode volume growth, till 2021 price stabilization from accelerated market consolidation (many competitors can’t afford to invest in 1. new tech to lower product costs or 2. international expansion to grow faster=they will disappear). With price drop, solar competitive without subsidies in many more markets, govmints then lose ability to control deployment rates, starting megatrend PV energy transition growth, supported by other tech (EV’s, batteries).
WCH.DE
ENTER AT €50 = DOUBLE OR TRIPLE IN 3 YEARS.
SHORT – OPTIONS
Global manufacturer of silicones + water dispersible polymer powder binders and additives. Silicones are used everywhere. 3200 products sold in 100 countries. 24 plants, 15 Labs, 52 subsidiaries. Sales offices in 32 countries. Sales EU 42%, Asia 35%, Americas 18%. Sales: silicones 50%, polymers 26%, polysilicones 16%, biosolutions 4%, others 3%.
WCH.DE这家德国企业制造的是聚硅氧烷和水分散性聚合物粉末粘合剂和添加剂。聚硅氧烷用处非常广泛，该公司有3200种产品销往全球100个国家和地区，下设24家工厂，15个实验室，52家子公司，在32个国家有销售代表处。销售总额中欧盟国家占42%，亚洲地区占35%，美洲16%。总收入中聚硅氧烷贡献了 50%，聚合物占26%，多晶硅16%，生物溶液4%，其他3%。
1. 1Mln Ton polymers p.a.. Only global supplier of fire-retardant dirt-repellent vinylacetate-ethylene (VAE) copolymer dispersions. In dispersible polymer powders, 2x as big as nearest rival, construction industry main client. Has 50% of global polymer powder market, 30% in VAE dispersion.
2. 2800 silicone products (silane, silicone fluids, emulsions, elastomers, sealants, resins, pyrogenic silicas), leader in EU, global nr. 2. Sales VAE 30%, silicone-based 70%.
3. 70kT p.a. hyperpure polycrystalline silicon powders-to-ingots for wafer making (solar PV cells, semiconductor-electronics), intense competition, decreasing margins, growing volumes from China competitors.
4. Biosolutions=biotech fermentation, 4 plants, gumbase for chewing gum, cyclodextrins, frozen bacteria cell banks, genetically modified live bacteria producing active pharma, food, agro ingredients (cystine, proteins, biosimilars, probiotics, others).
I’ve got two, but I will keep it simple and stick with one I mentioned to you over a year ago, OneSoft Solutions (OSS.V). They use ML/AI to help pipeline operators predict vulnerable spots before they rupture. They are all cashed up with $13 million on the balance sheet and no debt. Six paying customers already including Phillips 66. Kind of ironic that pipelines and ESG can be mentioned in the same breath, but pipes are the most cost efficient and safest way to transport hydrocarbons. The issue is that over 50% of the US pipeline infrastructure is over 50 years old. So while we are clearly moving to an electrified economy, it ain’t happening overnight. In the meantime, there is 2.6 million miles of pipe! Anyways, here’s a few files if you want to dig a bit deeper.
我也有两个票想推荐，但是我不想搞得太复杂，还是那只一年前跟你提过的票吧，加拿大多伦多股票交易所上市的OneSoft Solutions公司，代码为OSS.V，该公司使用人工智能和机器学习技术帮助管道运营商在管道破裂之前就能预测管道的故障。该公司没有负债，账上有1300万的现金有6家付费用户，其中包括Phillips 66公司。有点讽刺的是管道运输和ESG概念是可以相提并论的，但是管道运输是效率最高和最安全的油气运送方式。问题是有50%以上的美国管道设施已经有50年以上的使用历史。因此虽然经济正在进入到电力驱动的时代，但这个转变并非一朝一夕。眼下还有260万英里长的管道！不多说了，先发你一些资料供参考。
Couldn’t agree more Kevin…its painful…but I’ve sold my energy stocks that trade at 2-3x ev/ebitda and I’ve been buying companies trading at 3x futures sales.
你说的太对了，凯文。。。决定不好做啊。。。但我卖掉了那些企业价值/息税摊销折旧前的利润为2、3倍的能源股，买了一些市值相当于未来三年销售收入的股票。
XBC and GRN being the two most recent purchases. I’m told the GRN deal was 2.5x oversubscribed.
我最近买的是XBC和GRN这两只票，有人告诉我说 GRN（即Greenlane Renewables Inc，在加拿大上市）在IPO的时候获得了2.5倍超额认购。
NPI, INE, BLX, RNW, AQN – have all benefited hugely from the etf flows recently.
还有几只票，比如NPI, INE, BLX, RNW, AQN，在从近期资金大举流入ETF基金的趋势中大大受益。
INE was a 95 rsi today before the big print after hours today.
INE这只票的股价在今天盘后交易时段大跌之前相对强弱指数到了95。
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