新流行病預測顯示，由於社會距離放鬆美國死亡人數將接近13.5萬人

COVID-19 death projection

COVID-19死亡投影

The latest projection from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Modeling and Evaluation says the coronavirus pandemic will claim nearly 135,000 lives in the U.S. by August, in part because many states are easing their social distancing restrictions.

華盛頓大學健康建模與評估研究所的最新預測說，到8月，冠狀病毒大流行將在美國奪去近13.5萬人的生命，部分原因是許多州正在放鬆對社會距離的限制。

Other projections also foresee a deadlier spring: A presentation purportedly prepared for the Trump administration and leaked to The New York Times and The Washington Post projects that there’ll be as many as 3,000 deaths per day in the U.S. by June 1, with a sharp increase coming around May 14. That’s significantly higher than the current pace of roughly 1,500 daily deaths, and close to the previous peak rate reported in mid-April.

其他預測也預見一個致命的春天:據稱演講準備的特朗普管理和洩露給《紐約時報》和《華盛頓郵報》的項目,每天會有多達3000人死亡在美國,6月1日大幅增長將在5月14日左右。這遠遠高於目前每天約1,500人死亡的速度，也接近4月中旬報告的峰值水平。

The White House and the Centers for Disease Control disavowed the slide presentation, which carried the CDC’s logo. The Post quoted one of the researchers providing the data for the presentation, Justin Lasser of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, as saying that the modeling work was not complete and that the projection was only one of a range of forecasts.

白宮和美國疾病控制與預防中心(Centers for Disease Control，簡稱CDC)否認了這張帶有CDC標識的幻燈片。《華盛頓郵報》援引了為此次演示提供數據的研究人員之一、約翰霍普金斯大學彭博公共衛生學院(Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)的賈斯汀·拉瑟(Justin Lasser)的話說，建模工作尚未完成，預測只是一系列預測中的一個。

The Institute for Health Modeling and Evaluation’s projections have been closely watched by the White House and other policymakers — in part because they’ve provided specific albeit variable estimates of total deaths. But the IHME’s projections also have come in for significant criticism from other quarters — in part because the models are based on tracking the course of the pandemic in various regions of the world, rather than the epidemiological characteristics of the virus.

健康建模與評估研究所的預測一直受到白宮和其他政策制定者的密切關注，部分原因是他們提供了對總死亡人數的具體但可變的估計。但IHME的預測也遭到了其他方面的強烈批評，部分原因是這些模型是基於對世界各地大流行過程的跟蹤，而不是基於該病毒的流行病學特徵。

In the past, the IHME models assumed a relatively symmetric rise and fall of infection and death, but the models released today reflect a far more extended “tail” to the course of infection.

在過去，IHME模型假定感染和死亡的升降相對對稱，但今天發佈的模型反映了感染過程的一個更廣泛的“尾巴”。

Today, the researchers acknowledged that their previous modeling wasn’t sophisticated enough. “It is increasingly clear that COVID-19 epidemic trajectories — and corresponding responses — are highly variable throughout the world,” they wrote in an online update.

今天，研究人員承認他們之前的模型不夠複雜。他們在一份在線更新中寫道:“越來越清楚的是，COVID-19的流行軌跡——以及相應的反應——在全世界範圍內是高度可變的。”

They said the revised projections reflect rising mobility in most U.S. states, as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11. Increased social interactions will promote transmission of the virus.

他們說，修訂後的預測反映了美國大多數州流動性的增加，以及31個州預計在5月11日前放寬社會距離的措施。增加社會交往將促進病毒傳播。

WATCH: IMHE model predicts major increase in coronavirus deaths due to "trends in mobility" #MTPDaily

觀察:IMHE模型預測，由於“移動趨勢”，冠狀病毒死亡人數將大幅增加

Professor Chris Murray of @IHME_UW: The increase in numbers is because "people are out, getting more active in the last week or 10 days” and relaxed social distancing. pic.twitter.com/COdH5JJV0V

克里斯·默裡教授(@IHME_UW):人數的增加是因為“人們外出了，在最後一週或10天變得更活躍了”，社交距離也放鬆了。pic.twitter.com/COdH5JJV0V

— Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) May 4, 2020

-與媒體見面(@MeetThePress) 2020年5月4日

Measures to increase testing for the virus, and conducting contact tracing to identify those who might have been infected even if they’re not experiencing symptoms, won’t offset the effects of increased mobility, the researchers said.

研究人員說，加強病毒檢測的措施，以及對接觸者進行追蹤以識別那些即使沒有出現症狀也可能感染了病毒的人，都無法抵消流動性增強的影響。

“In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature and rising rates of testing and contact tracing,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a news release. “We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer.”

IHME主任Christopher Murray在新聞發佈會上說:“在每個州，疫情的發展取決於放鬆的社會距離、不斷升高的溫度、不斷上升的檢測率和接觸者追蹤率之間的平衡。”“我們預計，許多州的疫情將延續整個夏季。”

As usual, the projections come with an uncertainty interval weighted for 95% confidence. Today’s uncertainty interval is 95,092 to 242,890 U.S. deaths by Aug. 4. Even the lower end of that range is significantly higher than IHME’s previous projection of 72,433 deaths during the same time frame, issued just a few days ago. For the record, today Johns Hopkins University is reporting a cumulative U.S. death count in excess of 68,000.

與往常一樣，這些預測的不確定性區間加權為95%的可信度。到8月4日，目前的不確定區間是95092到242890人死亡。就在幾天前，IHME曾預測同一時間段的死亡人數為72,433人。根據記錄，今天約翰·霍普金斯大學報告的美國死亡人數累計超過68,000人。

Murray emphasized that the new hybrid model will be tweaked as the pandemic continues.

默裡強調，隨著大流行的繼續，新的混合模式將被調整。

“The model will allow for regular updating as new data are released on cases, hospitalizations, deaths, testing and mobility,” he said. “It can also be used to identify what may be the trajectory to progressively relax social distancing while still limiting the risk of large-scale resurgence.”

“隨著病例、住院、死亡、檢測和移動方面的新數據的發佈，該模型將允許定期更新，”他說。“它還可以用來確定什麼可能是逐步放鬆社會距離的軌跡，同時仍然限制大規模復甦的風險。”

Murray said it’s not yet clear what effect warmer temperatures will have on transmission of the disease. If SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has a flu-like seasonal variability, there could be fewer cases than projected as summer approaches.

默裡說，目前還不清楚氣溫升高會對這種疾病的傳播產生什麼影響。如果導致covid19的SARS-CoV-2病毒具有類似流感的季節性變化，那麼隨著夏季的臨近，病例可能會比預計的少。

“At the moment, we believe that the effects of temperature on transmission are important, yet minimal,” Murray said. “As we move into summer and temperatures rise, we will learn more and will revise our projections if it is statistically relevant.”

“目前，我們認為溫度對傳播的影響很重要，但影響很小，”默裡說。“隨著我們進入夏季，氣溫上升，我們將瞭解到更多情況，並將修正我們的預測，如果它與統計數據相關的話。”

Washington state’s death toll is projected to rise from the cumulative figure of 834 reported over the weekend to 1,159 by Aug. 4. Just a week ago, IHME’s projection for the state’s death toll through Aug. 4 was 877.

華盛頓州的死亡人數預計將從週末報告的834人上升到8月4日的1159人。就在一週前，IHME預計該州截至8月4日的死亡人數為877人。

Last week, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee gave the go-ahead for resuming some recreational outdoor activities and reopening some previously closed businesses, as part of a four-phase process of relaxing restrictions that’s likely to run at least through May 31.

上週，華盛頓州州長傑伊•英斯利(Jay Inslee)批准恢復一些休閒戶外活動，並重新開放一些此前關閉的企業，這是放鬆限制的四階段過程的一部分，這些限制可能至少會持續到5月31日。

IHME’s model is no longer projecting dates when social distancing restrictions should be lifted. Instead, it’s building assumptions about social distancing policies into the state-by-state projections.

IHME的模型不再預測應該取消社交距離限制的日期。相反，它是在各州的預測中建立關於社會距離政策的假設。

Regardless of the policies in force, individuals can lower the risk of transmission by wearing face coverings, staying 6 feet away from others, avoiding large gatherings, washing their hands frequently and minimizing face-touching.

不管現行的政策如何，個人可以通過戴口罩、與他人保持6英尺的距離、避免大型集會、勤洗手和儘量避免接觸面部來降低傳播風險。

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關鍵字: 華盛頓大學 約翰·霍普金斯 流行病

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