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內容摘要
“8.11”匯改以來，人民幣匯率經歷了急跌急漲的輪迴。人民幣匯率維穩取得超預期成功，美元走弱是必要但非充分條件，關鍵是通過優化中間價定價機制，人民幣兌美元匯率升值重塑了匯率政策公信力。關於中國貨幣信貸和房地產市場對人民幣匯率走勢的影響儘管不無道理，但匯率與上述二者並無必然的關係，避免出現壞的結果，在治本的同時，市場預期引導和管理至關重要。前期，貶值壓力下，有管理浮動雖然不無代價，但讓人民幣匯率自由浮動也是一個非常冒險的決定。當前匯率雙向波動、市場預期分化是深化匯率市場化改革的有利時機。短期看，有助於防止未來美元走強，中國再次陷入被動；長遠看也有利於進一步助推中國改革開放，以及更好發揮經濟全球化的引領作用。
關鍵詞：匯率中間解、多重均衡、公信力、貨幣超發。
中圖分類號：F83
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