Unfortunately, because of Sequoia’s presence in many regions around the world, we are gaining first-hand knowledge of coronavirus’ effects on global business. As with all crises, there are some businesses that stand to benefit. However, many companies in frontline countries are facing challenges as a result of the virus outbreak, including:

不幸的是，由於紅杉遍及全球許多地區，因此我們獲得了關於冠狀病毒對全球業務影響的第一手資料。與所有危機一樣，有些企業也將從中受益。但是，由於病毒爆發，一線國家的許多公司都面臨挑戰，其中包括：

Drop in business activity. Some companies have seen their growth rates drop sharply between December and February. Several companies that were on track are now at risk of missing their Q1–2020 plans as the effects of the virus ripple wider.

業務萎縮。一些公司已經看到其增長率在12月至2月之間急劇下降。隨著病毒的波及範圍擴大，一些進展順利的公司現在有可能錯過其2020年第一季度計劃。

Supply chain disruptions. The unprecedented lockdown in China is directly impacting global supply chains. Hardware, direct-to-consumer, and retailing companies may need to find alternative suppliers. Pure software companies are less exposed to supply chain disruptions, but remain at risk due to cascading economic effects.

供應鏈中斷。中前所未有的封鎖直接影響著全球供應鏈。硬件，直接面向消費者和零售的公司可能需要尋找替代供應商。純軟件公司較少受到供應鏈中斷的影響，但由於級聯的經濟影響而仍然處於風險之中。

Curtailment of travel and canceled meetings. Many companies have banned all “non-essential” travel and some have banned all international travel. While travel companies are directly impacted, all companies that depend on in-person meetings to conduct sales, business development, or partnership discussions are being affected.

減少旅行和取消會議。許多公司禁止所有“非必要”旅行，而一些公司禁止所有國際旅行。雖然旅遊公司受到直接影響，但所有依賴面對面會議進行銷售，業務發展或合夥關係討論的公司都受到影響。

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It will take considerable time — perhaps several quarters — before we can be confident that the virus has been contained. It will take even longer for the global economy to recover its footing. Some of you may experience softening demand; some of you may face supply challenges. While The Fed and other central banks can cut interest rates, monetary policy may prove a blunt tool in alleviating the economic ramifications of a global health crisis.我們將需要相當長的時間-可能需要幾個季度-才能確定該病毒已被遏制。全球經濟恢復基礎將需要更長的時間。你們中有些人的需求可能會減弱；你們中有些人可能會面臨供應挑戰。儘管美聯儲和其他中央銀行可以降低利率，但貨幣政策可能被證明是緩解全球健康危機的經濟後果的鈍器。

We suggest you question every assumption about your business, including:

我們建議您質疑有關您業務的所有假設，包括：

1.Cash runway. Do you really have as much runway as you think? Could you withstand a few poor quarters if the economy sputters? Have you made contingency plans? Where could you trim expenses without fundamentally hurting the business? Ask these questions now to avoid potentially painful future consequences.

1現金跑道

。你真的有你想的那麼多跑道嗎？如果經濟不景氣，您能承受幾個貧困季度嗎？您是否制定了應急計劃？在不從根本上損害業務的前提下，您可以在哪裡削減開支？現在問這些問題，以避免將來可能帶來的痛苦。

2.Fundraising. Private financings could soften significantly, as happened in 2001 and 2009. What would you do if fundraising on attractive terms proves difficult in 2020 and 2021? Could you turn a challenging situation into an opportunity to set yourself up for enduring success? Many of the most iconic companies were forged and shaped during difficult times. We partnered with Cisco shortly after Black Monday in 1987. Google and PayPal soldiered through the aftermath of the dot-com bust. More recently, Airbnb, Square, and Stripe were founded in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis. Constraints focus the mind and provide fertile ground for creativity.

2.融資。如2001年和2009年那樣，私人融資可能會大大軟化。如果在2020年和2021年證明以有吸引力的條件籌集資金困難，您會怎麼做？您能否將具有挑戰性的情況轉變為機會，以建立持久的成功？許多最具標誌性的公司都是在困難時期鍛造和塑造的。在1987年黑色星期一之後不久，我們與思科合作。谷歌和PayPal在網絡泡沫破滅後倖免於難。最近，在全球金融危機中成立了Airbnb，Square和Stripe。約束使思想集中起來，為創造力提供了沃土。

3.Sales forecasts. Even if you don’t see any direct or immediate exposure for your company, anticipate that your customers may revise their spending habits. Deals that seemed certain may not close. The key is to not be caught flat-footed.

3，銷售預測。即使您看不到公司有任何直接或直接的風險敞口，也要預期您的客戶可能會改變他們的消費習慣。似乎確定的交易可能不會結束。關鍵是不要措手不及。

4.Marketing. With softening sales, you might find that your customer lifetime values have declined, in turn suggesting the need to rein in customer acquisition spending to maintain consistent returns on marketing spending. With greater economic and fundraising uncertainty, you might even want to consider raising the bar on ROI for marketing spend.

4，營銷。隨著銷售疲軟，您可能會發現客戶的經營生命週期價值下降了，這反過來表明有必要控制新客戶獲取支出，以保持一致的營銷支出回報。由於存在更大的經濟和籌資不確定性，您甚至可能要考慮提高營銷支出的投資回報率標準。

5.Headcount. Given all of the above stress points on your finances, this might be a time to evaluate critically whether you can do more with less and raise productivity.

5，員工人數。考慮到您的財務上所有上述壓力點，這可能是時候認真評估您是否可以用更少的錢做更多的事情並提高生產率。

6.Capital spending. Until you have charted a course to financial independence, examine whether your capital spending plans are sensible in a more uncertain environment. Perhaps there is no reason to change plans and, for all you know, changing circumstances may even present opportunities to accelerate. But these are decisions that should be deliberate.

6，資本支出。在確定了財務獨立性的路線之前，請檢查您的資本支出計劃在更加不確定的環境中是否明智。也許沒有理由更改計劃，並且就您所知，不斷變化的情況甚至可能帶來加速的機會。但是這些決定應該是經過深思熟慮的。

Having weathered every business downturn for nearly fifty years, we’ve learned an important lesson — nobody ever regrets making fast and decisive adjustments to changing circumstances. In downturns, revenue and cash levels always fall faster than expenses. In some ways, business mirrors biology. As Darwin surmised, those who survive “are not the strongest or the most intelligent, but the most adaptable to change.”

在經歷了將近50年的每一次業務衰退之後，我們吸取了重要的教訓-沒有人會後悔對瞬息萬變的情況做出快速而果斷的調整。在低迷時期，收入和現金水平的下降總是快於支出。在某些方面，業務反映了生物學。正如達爾文所推測的那樣，能生存下來的人“不是最強大或最聰明的人，而是最能適應變化的人。”

A distinctive feature of enduring companies is the way their leaders react to moments like these. Your employees are all aware of COVID-19 and are wondering how you will react and what it means for them. False optimism can easily lead you astray and prevent you from making contingency plans or taking bold action. Avoid this trap by being clinically realistic and acting decisively as circumstances change. Demonstrate the leadership your team needs during this stressful time.

持久公司的一個顯著特徵是其領導者對此類時刻做出反應的方式。您的員工都知道COVID-19，並想知道您將如何反應以及這對他們意味著什麼。錯誤的樂觀情緒很容易使您誤入歧途，並阻止您制定應變計劃或採取大膽的行動。通過臨床上切合實際並隨情況變化採取果斷行動來避免這種陷阱。請展示在這段緊張的時間內您的團隊需要的領導能力。

Here is some perspective from our partner Alfred Lin, who lived through another black swan moment as an operating executive:

這是我們合夥人阿爾弗雷德·林（Alfred Lin）的一些觀點，他曾在另一個黑天鵝時期擔任運營主管：

“I was serving as the COO/CFO of Zappos when I was summoned to Sequoia’s office for the infamous R.I.P. Good Times presentation in 2008, prior to the financial crisis. We didn’t know then, just like we don’t know now, how long or how sharp or shallow of a downturn we will face. What I can confirm is that the presentation made our team and our business stronger. Zappos emerged from the financial crisis ready to seize on opportunities after our competitors had been battered and bruised.”

“當我被召喚到紅杉辦公室聽取臭名昭著的R.I.P.（那時候我正擔任Zappos的首席運營官/首席財務官），做2008年Good Times演講，那是在金融危機之前。那時我們不知道，就像我們現在不知道一樣，我們將面對多長時間，多劇烈或多緩的衰退。我可以確認的是，這次演講使我們的團隊和業務更加強大。Zappos擺脫了金融危機，準備在我們的競爭對手遭受重創和挫折後抓住機遇。”

Stay healthy, keep your company healthy, and put a dent in the world.

保持健康，使公司保持健康，並在世界上找到機會。

Best, 祝好

Team Sequoia紅杉團隊