前言：中国知名农业咨询公司芝华数据的CEO黄劲文表示，猪价上涨，养殖户将推迟屠宰，使生猪出栏体重增加，同时他们会保留更多的母猪用于繁殖，而这可能会使中国目前的生猪市场前景更加不明朗。由于供应比去年下降了70%，他预测2019年底的猪肉价格将达到每公斤60元。
唐杰在一家在生猪养殖场工作。以前，他每天都会从离家不远的菜市场购买猪肉，但最近已经两个月没买过猪肉了。作为他最喜欢的菜，莲藕炖排骨已从他的菜单上被删掉。
唐杰来自成都，他在上个月的一次生猪会议上说道："我们几乎买不起猪肉了，餐馆也开始修改菜单了。因为价格高了，猪肉用的更少了。在北京南部，小餐馆老板杨毅不得不冒着失去顾客的风险，把受欢迎的红烧肉的价格提高了17%至68元。他说，不这样做的话是无法承受猪肉价格上涨的。由于非洲猪瘟，9月份生猪数量较上年同期下降40%以上，导致肉类价格飙升近70%，而唐杰和杨毅并非个例。
作为中国人的主食，猪肉价格的飙升可能还会持续数月，而这个全球最大市场的消费量将因此下降一半。而问题是，对猪肉的需求是否会恢复？中国畜牧兽医学会副秘书长马闯表示："对于中国而言，国内甚至全球的肉类供应根本不够。”
农业部食品与营养发展研究所的程广燕表示，按照目前的价格，中国的猪肉消费量可能会下降50%。
作为曾经最廉价的肉类，猪肉主导着中国人的餐桌，占动物蛋白质消费量的60%以上。而今家庭消费转向了其他来源，也提升了牛肉和家禽等替代产品的价格，这令政府感到担忧，同时给央行带来了通胀难题。此外，鸡蛋期货上周也创下了历史新高。
破纪录的国内猪肉价格也推动了中国肉类进口的敞开。海外猪肉采购较上年同期增长逾70%，而牛肉价格上涨逾50%。
核准装运
为了填补供应缺口，中国最近批准了从巴西的七家工厂运来的猪杂碎。
荷兰合作银行表示，预计未来几个月全球供求失衡将会“推动市场价格更高、更不稳定，加剧本已脆弱的局面”。
中国知名农业咨询公司芝华数据的CEO黄劲文表示，猪价上涨，养殖户将推迟屠宰，使生猪出栏体重增加，同时他们会保留更多的母猪用于繁殖，而这可能会使中国目前的生猪市场前景更加不明朗。由于供应比去年下降了70%，他预测2019年底的猪肉价格将达到每公斤60元。
农业部的负责人程表示，近年来未能改变国民热衷食用肥肉的饮食习惯，因此猪肉消费量的下降可能是有益国民健康的。但一旦危机过去，旧的饮食习惯还是很难消除，而且猪杂碎、排骨和猪肚等价格将下降，购买的人会更多。她说：“从营养的角度来看，我们正在鼓励市民多食用鸡肉、鸡蛋和鱼，而不是红肉类，”她说，“他们可能并不满足，鸡肉毕竟没有猪肉美味。”
China’s pork consumption risks collapse as prices surge
Tang Jie, who works on a pig farm, says he used to get pork from the wet market near his home every day. But he hasn’t bought any in two months. And his favourite dish, stewed pork ribs with lotus root, has been cut from the menu at his local restaurant.
“We can barely afford the prices, ” Tang, a resident of the south-western Chinese city of Chengdu, said at a hog conference last month. “Restaurants are changing the menu, and using less pork because of the high prices.”
In south Beijing, small restaurant-owner Yang Yi says he’s had to risk losing customers by raising the price of his popular braised pork dish, Hong Shao Rou, by 17% to 68 yuan. He said he can’t otherwise absorb the higher cost of the meat, which spiked nearly 70% in September after hog numbers collapsed more than 40% from a year earlier because of African swine fever.
Tang and Yang are hardly alone in counting the toll of the deadly outbreak that has devastated hog herds in China.
The astonishing surge in pork prices, the staple meat for Chinese people, could yet run many more months and on the way see consumption in the world’s biggest market fall by half.
The question is whether that demand will ever come back.
“There’s simply not enough of the meat domestically, or globally, for China, ” said Ma Chuang, deputy secretary general at the Chinese Association of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine in Beijing.
At current prices, the country’s pork consumption could fall by 50%, said Cheng Guangyan, director at the farm ministry’s Institute of Food and Nutrition Development in Beijing.
Once the cheapest meat, pork dominated Chinese tables and accounted for more than 60% of animal protein consumption. Households are now switching to other sources, putting up the price of alternates like beef and poultry, alarming the government and giving the central bank an inflation headache. Even egg futures hit a record last week.
Record domestic pork prices have also driven the nation’s meat imports to heady levels. Overseas pork purchases jumped more than 70% in September from a year earlier, while beef was up over 50%.
Shipments approved
In its latest attempt to fill the supply gap, China has approved shipments of swine offal from seven plants in Brazil.
The global imbalance in supply-demand is expected “to drive higher and more volatile markets in the coming months, magnifying an already tenuous situation, ” according to Rabobank.
And elevated prices could yet worsen the outlook for China, as farmers delay slaughter to allow their pigs to grow larger while retaining more sows for breeding, said Jim Huang, head of independent consulting firm www.china-data.com.cn. Huang said he expects pork prices to hit 60 yuan a kg by the end of 2019 as supply drops 70% from last year’s level.
Still, having failed to wean the nation off fattier meats in recent years, the collapse in pork consumption could yet deliver health benefits, said the farm ministry’s Cheng. But, old habits may be hard to break once the crisis passes, and chops, ribs and pork-belly become more affordable.
“From a nutritional point of view, we are encouraging citizens to take more chicken, eggs and fish instead of red meat, ” she said. “They may be unhappier as chicken isn’t as delicious as pork, ” she said. — Bloomberg
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