張斌 鄒靜嫻
改革開放四十年，中國為什麼發展得更快？
宋泓
改革開放四十年來中國國際收支的演變歷程、發展趨勢與政策涵義
張明
美元體系的金融邏輯與權力——中美貿易爭端的貨幣金融背景及其思考
李曉
全球性經濟危機與全球貨幣體系調整：經驗證據與理論框架
張廣斌 黃海洲 張紹宗
美國的全球化陷阱、貿易爭端訴求與中國的戰略應對
潘英麗 周兆平
美國貿易政策制定中的觀念、偏好與策略選擇
夏敏
探尋通往人類命運共同體的全球化之路——全球治理的政治經濟學思考
周宇
世界經濟或將進入多趨勢並存的時代：表徵、成因與未來——兼論特朗普的“三零貿易秩序”
王躍生
拉美民眾主義的悖論：根源與後果
袁東振
智庫觀察
中國經濟結構轉型的進展與差距 張斌 鄒靜嫻
通過與發達經濟體結構轉型軌跡進行比對，本文從產業和支出兩個維度考察了中國經濟結構轉型取得的進展與存在的不足。中國經濟在2010－2012年間邁過了工業化高峰期，此後逐步由製造業轉向服務業。工業化高峰期後人力資本密集型服務業迎來了高速增長；投入、生產、產品多維度證據顯示製造業整體升級步伐較快。消費、投資、出口的“三駕馬車”結構趨於平衡。上述這些結構變化與發達經濟體走過的歷史軌跡高度吻合，表明中國仍在邁向更高收入水平的正常軌道上。差距主要表現在第二、三產業就業佔比偏低；政府服務佔比偏低；城市化率偏低等。這些對比說明中國在產業發展、公共服務和城市化之間存在不平衡，後兩者落後於前者並形成了經濟發展短板，彌補這些短板需要推動“從發展到服務”的政府職能轉型。
關鍵詞：結構轉型 跨國比較 補短板
China’sEconomic Restructuring: Development and Gap
ZhangBin and Zou Jingxian
This article reviews the progress of China’s economic transformation and compares it with high-income economies at a similar stage of development. China's economic activity has been shifting from manufacturing to services since 2010–2012. After this peak of industrialization, the upgrading of its manufacturing has accelerated, as reflected by inputs, production and products; human–capitalintensive services has grown at a fast pace in the post-industrialization era, and consumption, investment and exports have become more balanced. The trajectory of those structural changes is consistent with that of high-income economies at a similar stage of development, indicating that China is on track towards a higher-income development. The gap mainly lies in the lower ratio of employment in the secondary and tertiary industries; the share of government services as a percentage of GDP and the urbanization rate are also quite low, indicating that the development of the country’s industrial development, public service and urbanization is unbalanced. To close the gap, government functions should shift from being development-oriented to service-oriented.
改革開放四十年，中國為什麼發展得更快？ 宋泓
改革開放四十年，與建國初期的二十九年相比、與同時期的其他發展中國家相比，為什麼中國的發展更快呢？本文的研究發現，最根本的原因有兩個：其一，是中國摒棄了文化大革命時期的左傾主義發展道路，並大膽探索了一條共產黨領導下的共同富裕之路；其二，是積極對外開放，全面與國際接軌，深入融合到世界經濟之中。
關鍵詞：改革開放 四十年 左傾主義發展道路 偉大的探索
China’s Faster Development in the Last 40 Years: An Explanation
SongHong
In the last 40 years of economic reform and opening-up, China’s economic growth has been faster than its expansion in the 29 years after the founding of the people’s republic and development of other developing countries in the same period. Why has that happened? This article finds that there are two fundamental reasons: First, China has abandoned the leftist development road and boldly explored a road of seeking common prosperity under the leadership of the Communist Party of China; second, it has actively opened up to the outsideworld and deeply integrated into the world economy.
改革開放四十年來中國國際收支的演變歷程、發展趨勢與政策涵義
張明
從2012年起，中國的國際收支雙順差格局已經逐漸消失。在未來，隨著經常賬戶內部貨物貿易順差繼續下降以及服務貿易逆差繼續上升、人口老齡化以及高槓杆導致國內儲蓄投資缺口收窄甚至倒掛，中國的經常賬戶可能呈現出短期順逆差交替、中期轉為持續逆差的格局；隨著中國產業結構的升級轉型、金融市場的雙向開放以及資本管制程度的下降，中國的非儲備性質金融賬戶可能呈現出餘額變動不居的特點；隨著人民幣匯率市場化程度的提高、經常賬戶餘額最終由正轉負、“一帶一路”倡議的推進以及藏匯於民格局的形成，中國的外匯儲備存量中期內有望逐漸下降。中國國際收支格局變化導致的政策涵義至少包括：第一，無論是人民幣匯率的波動性，還是中國國內資產價格的波動性，在未來均會顯著增強；第二，中國央行的貨幣政策操作框架將會發生深刻改變；第三，各種資金頻繁的大進大出將會增加中國金融體系面臨的內外部衝擊；第四，中國投資者對美國國債的投資需求將會發生趨勢性下降，中期內美國國債市場存在顯著調整的風險。
關鍵詞：改革開放四十週年 國際收支 國際投資頭寸 演變 政策涵義
China’s Balance of Payments in the Past Four Decades: Evolution, Future Trajectories and Policy Implications
Zhang Ming
The twin surpluses in China’s balance of payments have gradually vanished since 2012. Asthe result of the declining goods trade surplus, the increasing services trade deficit, the shrinking domestic savings-investment gap caused by populationaging and the rising household leverage in the coming years, China’s current account may suffer from frequent deficits in the short term and persistent deficits in the mid-term. Along with the upgrading of China’s industry structure, the two-way opening up of its financial markets and loosening capital regulation, China’s non-reserve financial account may swing between surplus and deficit. China’s foreign exchange reserve may decline gradually as the liberalization of renminbi exchange rate regime improves, the current account surplus declines and becomes negative, the Belt and Road Initiative iscarried out, and foreign exchange holdings by enterprises and households increase. The evolution of China’s balance of payments has the following policy implications: First, the volatilities of both renminbi exchange rate and domestic asset prices would significantly intensify; second, the operational framework of China's monetary policy would change dramatically; third, the increasing two-way capital flows would amplify the internal and externalimpacts on China's financial system; last but not least, the US’ treasury bondmarket would face heavy pressure of volatility in the mid-term as a result ofthe shrinking demand from Chinese investors.
美元體系的金融邏輯與權力 ——中美貿易爭端的貨幣金融背景及其思考
李曉
中美貿易爭端的爆發不僅暴露出中國的美國認知存在著一系列問題，也使人思考特朗普恣意妄為的“美國優先”行為的深層次背景。本文認為，美國現階段與他國的爭端尤其是與中國的貿易爭端有著強大的金融和貨幣優勢支撐。長期以來“美國衰落論”僅熱衷於關注美國衰落的話題本身，而對其經濟結構變化以及由此產生的政治、經濟影響尤其是美國核心利益的變化熟視無睹。1970年代以來美國經濟結構的日益金融化產生了兩個重要的國際影響：一是美元體系的形成與強化，二是以美國科技創新與製造業產業轉移為代表的全球產業鏈的形成與發展。這是特朗普發動貿易保護主義行動的重要背景或者保障。其中，美元體系的形成與發展是20世紀世界經濟最為核心的變化，使得美國構建了一個與以往霸權國家全然不同的世界控制體系，對世界的剝削與控制不僅更加隱秘，重要的是還更改了人類長久以來的金融邏輯，即將“債權人邏輯”更改為“債務人邏輯”。此乃當今美國所有國際經濟行為的重要基礎。“債務人邏輯”的實施主要是依靠美元體系來實現的，該體系的核心利益就在於，維護一個允許它可以堅守“債務人邏輯”、大量舉債而不受其他任何國家約束的國際貨幣秩序。本文在探討美元體系的金融邏輯與運行機制的基礎上，分析了其本質與全球性權力，並提出了中國應對中美貿易爭端與未來發展的總體戰略。
關鍵詞：美元體系 債權人邏輯 債務人邏輯 金融權力
Financial Rationale and Power of the Dollar System: Monetary and Financial Background of the Sino-US Trade Disputes
Li Xiao
The Sino-UStrade disputes not only expose our misunderstanding of the United States, but prompt us to think about the deep-level background of the Trump administration’s willful "America First" behavior. This article argues that the current disputes between the United States and the rest of the world, especially the trade disputes with China, are built on the country’s strong financial and monetary advantages. For a long time, the theory of "America's decline" has only focused on the topic of the decline itself and turned a blind eye to the changes in its economic structure and the resulting political and economic implications, especially the changes in the core interests of the United States. The US’ economic structure has been increasingly finance-oriented since the 1970s, which has led to two important results: One is the formation and strengthening of the US dollar system; the other is the formation of the global industrial chain featuring the US’ technological innovation and its transfer of its manufacturing capacities to other countries. It is an important background or guarantee for Trump's launch of trade protectionist actions. The formation and development of the US dollar system is the most crucial change of the world economy in the 20th century. It allows the United States to build a world control system that is totally different from the hegemonic countries in the past. Its exploitation and control of the world has become more secretive; more importantly, it has changed the long-standing financial rules of mankind, i.e., the creditor-centered rule has been changed into the debtor-centered rule. Such achange is an important foundation for all its economic behaviors in today's international community. The implementation of debtor-centered rule is mainly backed by the US dollar system. The core interest of the system lies in maintenance of an international monetary order that allows the US to take advantage of the debtor-centered rule to borrow heavily without being restrained by any othercountry. Based on the discussion of the financial rationale and operational mechanism of the US dollar system, this article analyzes the nature of the system and its global strength, before putting forward China’s overall strategy for dealing with the Sino-US trade disputes and its future development.
全球性經濟危機與全球貨幣體系調整：經驗證據與理論框架
張廣斌 黃海洲 張紹宗
2008年爆發的全球金融危機已過去十年，但全球經濟仍未走出危機的陰影。歷史地看，每一次全球性經濟危機的爆發都處於全球貨幣體系調整的關鍵時期，並且，全球貨幣體系未能適時調整正是危機爆發的重要原因，這引發了對全球貨幣體系調整與全球性經濟危機之間關係的思考。從理論上來分析，單一主權貨幣充當國際本位貨幣的前提條件，是該貨幣發行的私有屬性能夠支撐其作為國際本位貨幣的公共屬性，而支撐力的發揮，依賴於這一主權國家的經濟體量足夠大。然而，現實卻是隨著外部經濟的趨同性增長，美國在全球經濟中的佔比趨於下降，全球貨幣體系平穩運行的理論張力會週期性崩斷，其結果很可能是全球性經濟危機的週期性爆發。
關鍵詞：全球性經濟危機 全球貨幣體系 國際本位貨幣
GlobalEconomic Crisis and Monetary System Adjustment: Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Framework
Zhang Guangbin, Huang Haizhou and Zhang Shaozong
The world economy is yet to step out of the fall outs of the global financial crisisten years after its eruption in 2008. Historically, every global economic crisis occurred in a critical period of the global monetary system restructuring. Moreover, failure of the global monetary system to get adjustedin accordance with changing times was an important factor behind the outbreak of the global economic crisis, which has prompted us to explore the relationship between global monetary system adjustment and global economic crisis.Theoretically, the premise that a single sovereign currency acts as an international standard currency is that the private attribute of its currency issuance can support its public attribute as an international standard currencyand whether the premise holds depends on the size of the economy of the sovereign state. However, the reality is that with the convergence of external economic growth, the United States has had a declining share in the global economy, which leads to the cyclical breakdown of the theoretical tension that sustains the global monetary system. The result is the cyclical outbreak of global economic crisis.
美國的全球化陷阱、貿易爭端訴求與中國的戰略應對 潘英麗 周兆平
全面扼制中國已成為美國的對華新國策，中美貿易戰只是一個開始。原因在於美國已陷入全球化陷阱，內部結構矛盾的激化加深了系統的脆弱性和美國政府對中國涉外戰略的敏感性。中國未來5年轉型的關鍵時期也許是中美經濟關係最複雜、摩擦最多的階段。瞭解中美貿易爭端的美方戰略訴求以及中國自身改革和轉型的客觀需要，中國決策者們就可保持戰略定力，在戰術上與之“周旋”，並在戰略上加大力度和速度推進改革促進“經濟轉型”。
關鍵詞：全球化陷阱 中美貿易爭端 戰略轉型
GlobalizationTrap of the US, Trade Disputes and China’s Strategic Response
Pan Yingli and Zhou Zhaoping
It has become a new national policy of the United States to comprehensively contain China’s development and the China-US trade disputes are but only the beginning of their rivalry because the United States has fallen into the trap of globalization and its intensifying internal structural conflicts have worsen edits systematic fragility and made it more responsive to China’s external policies. The crucial period of China’s transformation in the upcoming five years is perhaps also the most complex period for the China-US economic relations since there may appear the most frictions between the two powers during that period. China needs to well understand the strategic demands of the United States in the ongoing trade disputes and how it can well carry out reform and transformation so that Chinese policymakers can maintain their strategic focus, deal with the US in a more flexible manner and make more efforts to speed up reform and economic transformation.
美國貿易政策制定中的觀念、偏好與策略選擇夏敏
在研究美國貿易政策的既有文獻中，大多數學者都認為經濟利益是決定美國貿易政策走向的主要因素。本文認為，觀念變遷應該成為研究當前美國貿易政策調整的關鍵變量，因為特朗普政府的貿易政策反映出與以往政策的根本性變化。世界觀、原則化信念以及因果觀念這三個層次的觀念通過影響美國公眾的貿易偏好和決策者的策略選擇在美國貿易政策制定中發揮了重要的作用。本研究對於理解中美當前貿易戰的根源有著積極的意義。緩解當前中美經濟對抗，僅僅有經濟上針鋒相對的反制措施是不夠的，因為觀念的變遷將會嚴重影響經濟措施的效果。如何定位中國在現存世界體系中的地位，如何消解其他國家對於中國經濟崛起的困惑與誤解，將關係到中國未來與其他國家的經濟關係。
關鍵詞：美國 貿易政策 觀念 偏好 策略選擇
Ideas, Preference and Strategic Choice in US’ Trade Policymaking
Xia Min
Most scholars believe that economic interests are the main factor influencing acountry’s trade policymaking. However, this article argues that the evolution of ideas should be a key variable in studying the current trade policy adjustments of the United States as the Donald Trump administration’s tradepolicy reflects a marked departure from policy stances of his predecessors. Three levels of ideas, including world view, principle-based belief and causality, play an important role in the formulation of US’ trade policy by influencing the trade preferences of the US public and the strategic choices of its policymakers. This article helps understand the root causes of the current trade war between China and the United States. To alleviate the ongoing Sino-US economic confrontation, it is inadequate for China to take economic counter-measures since the evolution of ideas will undermine the effectiveness of those economic measures. How to position itself in the current world systemand how to disperse other countries’ confusion about and misunderstanding of its economic rise will be crucial for China’s future economic relations with the rest of the world.
探尋通往人類命運共同體的全球化之路 ——全球治理的政治經濟學思考
周宇
全球化帶來了難以想象的經濟繁榮，但也造成了日益嚴重的社會不平等。面對甚囂塵上的逆全球化思潮，有必要從政治經濟學的視角思考全球治理問題，因為發展關乎經濟，發展成果分配則關乎政治。本文梳理了逆全球化的表現，指出全球化使國與國之間的貧富差距得到大幅改善，但一國之內的貧富差距問題卻日益突出。經濟分化引發政治極化，當各國民粹主義政客將經濟問題政治化，把自身問題歸咎於他國，便有了國際層面的逆全球化亂象。本文從經濟、政治制度和國際秩序等方面分析了逆全球化的成因，指出要彌合技術變革造成的經濟分化，解決制度供給與改革需求的錯配，擺脫全球經濟治理的“兩難悖論”，即全球化的世界經濟與以民族國家為基礎的治理體系之間的矛盾，需要對市場與政府的邊界進行再定位，對自由民主制進行再思考，以人類命運共同體為出發點對全球治理路徑進行再探索，讓全球化再出發。
關鍵詞：全球化 逆全球化 全球治理 人類命運共同體 一帶一路
In Search of a New Paradigm of Globalization toward a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind — Observations of Global Governance from the Perspective of Political Economy
ZhouYu
Globalization has brought about unprecedented prosperity, but it has also resulted in growing inequality. In the face of the rising trend against globalization, it is necessary to approach global governance from the perspective of political economy, as development is about economics, but distribution is about politics. By tracing the evolution of the anti-globalization trend, this article argues that while globalization has greatly narrowed the wealth gap among countries, the wealth gap within countries has kept widening. Economic divide has led to political polarization. When populist politicians in some countries opt to politicize economic problems and shift the blame for domestic problems to foreign countries as a political expediency, we see a collective wave against globalization at the international level. The article also analyzes the root causes of anti-globalization. They include the widening of economic divide caused by technological progress, the mismatch between the supply of institutions and the demand for reform, and the dilemma of global economic governance, namely, the conflict between the borderless world economy and the global governance system drawn along the lines of national boundaries. To solve those problems, we need to find a new paradigm of globalization that is more inclusive. To that end, we must recalibrate the role of the market and the government in the economy, reconsider the universal applicability of liberal democracy, and make efforts to build a community with a shared future for mankind to improve global governance.
世界經濟或將進入多趨勢並存的時代：表徵、成因與未來——兼論特朗普的“三零貿易秩序” 王躍生
近年隨著特朗普執政以來推行單邊主義、保護主義，原有世界經濟結構與多邊貿易體系不斷趨於瓦解，全球經濟與貿易秩序進入混亂無序狀態。本文認為，基於世界經濟發展的客觀基礎和經濟全球化大趨勢，孤立主義與保護主義再度興起、雙邊主義與區域主義漸成主流、新型全球化的不斷推進，這三種趨勢並存將成為世界經濟與國際貿易領域的長期狀態。而特朗普所主張所謂“公平、對等”的“三零貿易秩序”及以此為依規的新的單一美國秩序並不具有現實性。
關鍵詞：世界經濟 國際貿易 保護主義 經濟全球化 三零貿易秩序
Trump’s “Triple-Zero” Trade Order and Future Trends of World Economy: Characteristics, Causes and Prospects
Wang Yuesheng
The Donald Trump administration of the US has been implementing its unilateral andprotectionist policies in the past two years, which has continually underminedthe existing global economic structure and multilateral trade system. The world economy and global trade order have stepped into a state of chaos. This article argues that based on the actually conditions of world economic development and the fundamental trend of economic globalization, isolationism and protectionism, bilateralism and regionalism, and a new type of globalization will coexist in the long run to affect the world economy and international trade. The so-called fair and reciprocal “triple-zero” trade order advocated byTrump and the resulting new single American order will prove infeasible.
拉美民眾主義的悖論：根源與後果袁東振
拉美民眾主義歷經百年而不衰，其產生與發展具有深刻的經濟、政治、社會和思想文化根源。在拉美地區，民眾主義與民族主義共生，經濟民眾主義與政治民眾主義相互交織，左翼民眾主義與右翼民眾主義並存。拉美民眾主義與歐美民粹主義缺乏承繼性和關聯性，也與其他地區民粹主義不完全相同。民眾主義在拉美特殊歷史條件下具有一定進步作用和積極意義。然而拉美民眾主義在理論和實踐上有嚴重缺陷，也造成一系列消極後果，形成諸多悖論。拉美民眾主義試圖以國家干預促進經濟發展，最終卻造成經濟崩潰；試圖通過反現存體制來推進民主政治，卻進一步加劇體制的脆弱性；試圖推進社會公平，最終卻加劇社會不滿。拉美的經驗表明，要消除民眾主義的消極後果，必先消除其產生和發展的經濟、政治、社會和思想文化根源。
關鍵詞：民眾主義 民族主義 左翼與右翼 拉丁美洲
The Paradox of Populism in Latin America: Origin and Consequences
Yuan Dongzhen
Populismin Latin American countries has a history of more than one hundred years, starting from late 19th century, and its inauguration and development are deeply rooted in the local economic, political, social, ideological and cultural conditions. In Latin America, populism has a deep symbiosis with nationalism, economic populism and political populism are intertwined, while left-wing populism and right-wing populism coexist. Populism in Latin America does not come from or have linkups with populism in North America and Europe; it is also different from populism in other regions. Given the special social conditions in Latin America, populism has been, in a sense, a positive force in the region; however, given its many serious flaws both in theory and practice, populism has caused a series of serious negative consequences and becomes quite paradoxical. The populists in Latin American countries have attempted to promote economic development through state intervention, promote democracy through measures against established systems, and enhance social equity through distributive public policy. However, in contrast to their original purposes, those measures have caused economic collapse, exacerbated the fragility of democratic system and intensified social dissatisfaction. The experiences of those Latin American countries show that, in order to avoid the negativecon sequences of populism, it is necessary to eliminate the economic, political, social, ideological and cultural root causes of populism.
延伸閱讀：
【目錄】《國際經濟評論》2017年第4期
【目錄】《國際經濟評論》2017年第3期
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