Your money and your life
IN 1965 ANDRÉ-FRANÇOIS RAFFRAY, a 47-year-old lawyer in southern France, made the deal of a lifetime. Charmed by an apartment in Arles, he persuaded the widow living there that if he paid her 2,500 francs (then about $500) a month until she died, she would leave it to him in her will.Since she was already 90, it seemed like a safe bet. Thirty years later Mr Raffray was dead and the widow, Jeanne Louise Calment, was still going strong. When she eventually passed away at 122, having become the world’s oldest person, the Raffray family had paid her more than twice the value of the house.
1965年，法国南部一名47岁的律师安德雷-弗朗索瓦·拉弗雷（André-François Raffray）做了一笔一辈子的交易。他钟情于阿尔勒的一间公寓，并说服了住在那里的寡妇：如果他每个月支付2,500法郎（约合500美元）直到她去世，她将会在遗嘱中把公寓留给他。由于她已经90岁了，这似乎是一个稳赢的赌注。30年后，拉弗雷先生去世，而寡妇让·路易斯·卡尔芒（Jeanne Louise Calment）依然生气勃勃。当她最终于122岁去世时，她是世界上年纪最大的人，而拉弗雷家族向她支付的金额超过了公寓价值的两倍。
Underestimating how long someone will live can be costly, as overgenerous governments and indebted private pension schemes have been discovering. They are struggling to meet promises made in easier times. Public pensions are still the main source of income for the over-65s across the OECD, but there are big differences between countries (see chart). In both America and Britain public provision replaces around 40% of previous earnings, but in some European countries it can be 80% or more. Where it makes up a big share of total pension income, as in Italy, Portugal and Greece,a shrinking workforce will increasingly struggle to finance a bulging group of pensioners.
低估一个人能活多久可能要付出高昂的代价，而过度大方的政府和负债累累的私人养老金计划似乎已经发现了这一点。日子好过时做出的承诺，如今履行起来却痛苦不堪。在所有的经合组织国家，公共养老金仍然是65岁以上老人的主要收入来源，但各国之间存在着很大的差异（见图表）。在美国和英国，公共经费能够替代工作时收入的40%左右，但在一些欧洲国家这个比例可以达到80%甚至更高。在意大利、葡萄牙和希腊这样的国家，公共经费占到了养老金总收入中很大一部分，不断萎缩的劳动力将越来越难以支撑日益膨胀的退休群体。
Private pension schemes, which supplement state provision, have been shifting from defined-benefit plans, where workers are promised a fixed amount of income in retirement,to defined-contribution plans, where workers themselves take on the risk.Such schemes are good for employers but tricky for individuals, who become personally responsible for ensuring they do not outlive their savings. The new stage of life now emerging between work and old age adds a further complication.To accommodate these changes, the financial industry needs an overhaul.
作为国家发放养老金的补充，私人养老金计划已经从保证员工退休后获得固定收入的固定收益计划，逐渐转向员工自行承担风险的固定缴费计划。这样的计划有利于雇主，但对个人而言则比较棘手，因为他们要自行承担确保储蓄足够花销的责任。如今，在工作年龄与老年之间出现的新的人生阶段让情况变得愈发复杂。为适应这些变化，金融业需要一场彻底的变革。
文编|包文洁
排版|赵静旭
审校|杜好雨
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