过去几十年，世界见证了中国经济的飞速发展——从1978年国内生产总值只有3679亿元的贫穷国家，连上新台阶，到经济规模跃居世界第二位，再到2018年国内生产总值突破90万亿元（约13.6万亿美元）。中国对世界经济增长贡献率连续六年保持在30%，日益成为世界经济的发展动力和稳定器。在全球经济波动较大的背景下，中国经济仍然定力十足，稳步前行。
The world has witnessed the rapid development of China over the past few decades, seeing it rise from a poor country, with a GDP of only 367.9 billion RMB in 1978, to become the world's second largest world economy. The world witnessed China break through the 90 trillion RMB GDP threshold (around US$13.6 trillion) in 2018. China's contribution to world economic growth has been maintained at 30% for six years. It has gradually become the driving force and stabilizer of the world economy. Against the changeable domestic and international situations, China's economy is still progressing at a steady pace.
▲ 这是中国铁路沈阳局集团有限公司长春动车运用所等待发车的高铁列车（图\新华社）
This is a high-speed train from China Railway Shenyang Group Co.,Ltd., March 5, 2019. (Photo\Xinhua)
最受海内外关注的话题之一就是中国经济增长。2019年两会上，中国政府承认面临多年少有的复杂严峻形势，下行压力加大，将今年GDP增长的预期目标定为6%—6.5%，经济发展的总体要求是行稳致远。
A topic of focus is China's economic growth. The Chinese government admits that the country is now confronted with a severe and complicated situation, and downward economic pressure is rising during 2019 Two Sessions (annual sessions of the National People's Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference). The overall goal of economic development this year is stable and high quality growth，while the anticipated GDP growth stands at a rate of 6 to 6.5 percent.
▲ 上海，外国朋友在外滩看日出。作为中国改革开放排头兵的上海，如今已成为现代化国际大都市。
Foreigners watch the sunrise on WaiTan. Shanghai, a leader in China's reform and opening up, has now become a modern international city.
中国经济开始衰退了吗？未来还会保持活力吗？中国会如何为全球经济的发展带来积极影响？
Is China's economy heading towards a recession? Under such circumstances, would China secure its economic vitality in the future? How can China influence the world economy in a positive way?
这些问题出现在China Focus对15位世界知名政界、学界、新闻界和科技领军人物的采访中。通过访谈我们得以了解，巴基斯坦前总理阿齐兹如何看待中国经济增长，为什么中美问题专家怀特博士对中国经济如此乐观，为什么英国议会上院议员戴维森勋爵认为“中国崩溃论”是荒谬的。
These were all questions China Focus posed to 15 world renowned leaders from politics, academia, media and technology. Interviews include how former Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has seen China's economy grow, why John Milligan-Whyte, Executive Chairman of the America-China Partnership Foundation, is optimistic about the future of China's economy and how Lord Neil Davidson, member of the UK House of Lords, thinks the "collapse of China" is an absurd idea.
巨大潜力
Huge Economic Potential
长久以来，中国经济在唱衰的杂音中成长。不断有各方人士 “唱空中国经济”，中国“经济硬着陆”“崩溃论”此起彼伏。事实和数据一次次让这些奇谈怪论破产。中国经济从高速发展到高质量发展，始终遵循自己的节奏稳步前行。
For years, China's economy has been rising despite hubbub of doomsayers. Speculation includes arguments that China is doomed to failure, certain to experience a hard landing or facing for imminent economic collapse. However, facts and data have proved again and again the collapse of those nonsense. China's economic development has always followed its own pace, and has steadily transformed from fast development to high-quality development.
▲ 英国工党影阁法律和财政国务大臣、议会上院议员戴维森勋爵
Lord Davidson, member of the UK House of Lords
对此，英国工党影阁法律和财政国务大臣、议会上院议员戴维森勋爵告诉China Focus，一直以来他都在关注西方经济学家和政客的观点，他们说中国将会崩溃，可“崩溃”从未发生。过去30年，他们常说中国会从内部崩溃，中国会这样那样，听起来非常可怕。但是到现在中国一直在稳步前进。中国知道自己该怎样做，有着清晰的发展战略，事实一次次证明中国能够做出正确的战略决策。戴维森勋爵强调，经济发展难免起起落落，但从长远来看，他相信在他有生之年，中国还会继续发展。
Lord Neil Davison, member of the UK House of Lords, told China Focus that he has long heard Western economists and politicians predict that China will collapse. It never has. In the past 30 years it has consistently been about how China will implode, China will fail, and it's all going to be dreadful. But what's entirely clear is that China has been moving steadfastly forward. China knows where it is going, it has a strategy and over and over again, it demonstrates that it is able to make its strategies come right. Lord Davison stressed that there will be ups and downs, but at least in his lifetime, China is certain to continue its success.
哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院首任院长格雷厄姆·艾利森表示自己一直都是个乐天派，习惯乐观地看待事物。过去十年，他对中国经济增长持积极态度。虽然在这期间，有许多局外人说中国的增速在放缓，经济将面临硬着陆，国家可能遭到重创。一切皆有可能。毫无疑问，中国面临的困难是巨大的，但中国拥有非常能干的、领导力强的政府，这是他保持乐观的原因之一。
Graham Allison, a political scientist and professor at John F.Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, expressed that he was an inherently optimistic person and has always been positive regarding China's growth over the course of the last 10 years. Even though many outsiders have said China's slowing down will result in a hard landing, it could result in an outright crash. Anything could happen. There's no doubt that China is facing huge obstacles. But it has a very capable government, and has shown very determined leadership.
▲ 中美合作基金会执行主席约翰·米勒-怀特
John Milliagan-Whyte, Executive Chairman of theAmerica-China Partnership Foundation
中美合作基金会执行主席约翰·米勒-怀特表示，他将一直看好中国经济发展，除非欧洲或者美国出现经济衰退（并影响到中国），而即便如此，中国仍将比其他国家做得更好。这是因为中国人的秉性，他们在历史上的地位，以及中国拥有稳定的政府。但中国的成功也有赖于世界其他国家的发展。如果全球的发展失败，那么中国的经济繁荣也会倒退。
John Milligan-Whyte, executive chairman of the America-China Partnership Foundation, is also optimistic about China's economic development. He says with certainty that unless the European or American economies fail, China will perform better than other countries. This is because of the nature of the Chinese people, and the nature of where they are in their history, and the fact that they have a stable government. But China's success depends upon the success of its neighbors. If its neighbors fail, China's economic success will roll back.
▲ 春华资本集团主席胡祖六
Chairman of Primavera Capital Group Hu Zuliu
谈到中国经济的发展，春华资本集团主席胡祖六说：“中国的经济发展取得了巨大成功，人们称其为‘中国奇迹’”。目前，经济有一些下行压力，可能受到数据、消费支出、股市和贸易等因素的影响。但他认为这些影响都是短期的，中国经济增长仍然潜力巨大，衰退风险很小。
Speaking on development, Hu Zuliu, Chairman of Primavera Capital Group and an ex-director of Goldman Sachs, says China has had phenomenal success in its economic development. It is the so-called "China miracle".
However, right now there are various downside pressures, and the economy could be affected by data, consumer spending, the stock market and trade. But such factors are only temporary, as China also has huge potential and the risk of recession remains minimal.
转型阵痛
The Pain of Economic Transition
巨人正在改变，近几年中国将更多的力量集中到第二产业、创新产业和第三产业，迎来新一轮的经济发展浪潮。今年形势将更加复杂，国外经济不确定因素明显增加，国内改革行至深水区，每前进一步都会面临更大的阻力。如今中国经济的起伏将会影响到全球经济，中国将如何迎接挑战？
However, the giant is changing, with more focus on secondary, innovative and tertiary industries, leading to a new wave of economic expansion. The general situation this year is more complex, with uncertainties in the world economy increasing remarkably, and China's domestic reform entering a "deep-water zone", every step China takes will be confronted with greater resistance. Now, the ups and downs in China's economy will affect the global economy, how should China face these challenges?
▲ 巴基斯坦前总理肖卡特·阿齐兹
Former Prime Minister of Pakistan Shaukat Aziz
巴基斯坦前总理肖卡特·阿齐兹告诉China Focus，中国的私营领域蓬勃发展。还有中小企业，它们构成了更大规模的生产基础。
Former Prime Minister of Pakistan Shaukat Aziz told China Focus that China has a flourishing private sector and also strong small and medium enterprises, which form the base of larger production.
阿齐兹说，挑战、变化和差异都会出现，但世界已经做好准备接受这样一个事实：我们必须在全球范围内高效销售和生产东西；如果做不到，就无法生存。因为竞争永远不会消失，不仅是传统领域，现在就连软性制造、设计、品牌宣传等领域也会受到影响。
Challenges will be there, change will happen, differences will occur, but the world has mentally adjusted to the fact that we have to be globally efficient to produce and sell things. If it's not that way, you won't be able to survive. Competition will always be there and exists now in the soft parts of manufacturing, design, branding and other areas. Those areas will also be affected.
▲ 世界贸易组织前总干事帕斯卡尔·拉米
Former Director-General of the World Trade Organization Pascal Lamy
世界贸易组织前总干事帕斯卡尔·拉米则更关注中国的开放，他表示开放使中国经济发展更为高效。中国开放了包括工业、服务业和部分农产品市场，迎来了外国经营者的竞争。这对中国和世界都有益。也正因为如此，中国的进口和出口也都增加了。
Pascal Lamy, former Director-General of the World Trade Organization, emphasized China's opening-up, saying that China opening its economy made it more efficient. It increased competition from foreign operators in areas where China agreed to open its markets, including manufacturing, some services and some parts of agriculture. Therefore, it was a good deal for both China and the world. And as a result of that, Chinese imports and exports both increased.
胡祖六分析说，过去中国的经济增长主要依靠低端、劳动密集型制造业，出口以及在基础设施领域的大量固定资产投资。中国长期沿用这一经济增长模式，而且效果显著。然而，目前这一模式面临巨大压力。中国必须采用新的经济增长模式，依靠消费、服务业和创新来推动经济发展。
Hu Zuliu's analysis shows that that past success mostly came from from low-end and labor-intensive manufacturing, exports and a very high rate of fixed investment, particularly in infrastructure. That model has worked well for China for a long period of time. However, it is facing increasing strain. China now will have to shift gears to a new growth model, including an economy more focused on consumers, services and innovation.
胡祖六强调，如果中国能够成功地做到这一点，做出结构调整，转变为新模式，中国经济能够在未来几年内继续稳步增长，他对此非常有信心。同时他也建议，中国应将供给侧结构改革作为重点，释放潜力，增强企业、投资者和消费者对改革的信心；政府不应过度依赖短期刺激，而应真正注重长期的改革策略——只有改革才能给中国经济带来持久的红利。
Hu argued that if China can succeed in making such adjustments, and succeed in this shift towards a new model, he is confident that China can achieve sustainable and moderately fast growth for many years to come. He suggested that China should stay focused on structural reforms to unleash its potential and boost the confidence of entrepreneurs, investors and consumers in its reforms. Hu hopes the Chinese government will not become over-reliant on short-term stimulus, but really focus on more long-term strategic reforms. Only reforms can bring about long-lasting dividends for China's economy.
撰文 / China Focus团队
图片 / 网络
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