Tungurahua, an active stratovolcano in Ecuador, is an ancient mountain that's picked up many names over the centuries.
通古拉瓦是厄瓜多爾一座活躍的層狀火山，是一座古老的山，幾個世紀以來，它被取了很多名字。
In the indigenous tongue of the Quechua peoples, the name means 'Throat of Fire'. Others say Tungurahua is Quichua for 'crater'. One nickname is the Black Giant.
在蓋丘亞人的土著語言中，這個名字的意思是“火喉”。其他人說通古拉瓦是Quichua的“火山口”。其中一個綽號是“黑巨人”。
Something everybody can agree upon, though, is that this old volcano has been a danger for a very long time – although the latest rumblings may signify a menace greater than any ordinary eruption.
然而，有一件事是每個人都同意的，那就是這座古老的火山在很長一段時間裡都是危險的——儘管最近的轟鳴聲可能意味著比任何普通火山噴發更大的威脅。
According to a new analysis, Tungurahua may be showing early warning signs of what could be a catastrophic structural collapse, thought to be due to instabilities wrought by the damage of ongoing magma activity inside the volcano.
根據一項新的分析，通古拉瓦可能顯示出可能是災難性的結構崩潰的早期預警跡象，人們認為這是由於火山內部持續的岩漿活動造成的破壞造成的不穩定。
Using satellite data we have observed very rapid deformation of Tungurahua's west flank, which our research suggests is caused by imbalances between magma being supplied and magma being erupted, says geophysical volcanologist James Hickey from the University of Exeter in the UK.
英國埃克塞特大學的地球物理火山學家詹姆斯·希基說:“利用衛星數據，我們觀察到通古拉瓦火山西側非常迅速的變形，我們的研究表明，這是由供應的岩漿和噴發的岩漿之間的不平衡造成的。”
Tungurahua has been persistently active since 1999, but if 20 years of relatively frequent eruptions seems like a long time, it's not – at least not in the lifespan of this very long-lived volcano.
自1999年以來，通古拉瓦火山一直很活躍，但如果說20年相對頻繁的噴發似乎是一段很長的時間，至少在這個非常長壽的火山的壽命中不是。
Tungurahua is actually on its third life, you might say, having already endured two of these structural collapses triggered by eruptions. The first Tungurahua edifice (Tungurahua I) collapsed sometime around the end of the Late Pleistocene.
你可能會說，通古拉瓦實際上已經經歷了由火山爆發引發的兩次結構崩塌，已經進入了第三次生命。第一個通古拉瓦建築物(通古拉瓦I)在晚更新世末期的某個時候倒塌了。
For thousands of years, the volcano then slowly rebuilt itself inside the remains of its original caldera. Then, about 3,000 years ago, Tungurahua II let forth, with another eruption prompting a partial collapse of the west flank.
數千年來，這座火山慢慢地在它原來的破火山口遺蹟中重建。然後，大約3000年前，通古拉華二世爆發了，另一次噴發導致了西翼的部分坍塌。
When the sides of volcanoes give way like this, massive landslides can result, with avalanches of rock that can travel for up to tens of kilometres.
當火山的側面像這樣崩塌時，就會導致大規模的山體滑坡，伴隨而來的是長達數十公里的巖崩。
The collapse 3,000 years ago is thought to have unleashed a debris avalanche laying ruin to an area of some 80 square kilometres (over 11,000 football fields in size).
3000年前的崩塌被認為引發了一場岩屑雪崩，將80平方公里的區域(超過11000個足球場大小)夷為平地。
Given a single eruption in 1999 forced the evacuation of over 25,000 people in nearby areas, it's hard to understate the threat an actual flank collapse could pose to Tungurahua's living neighbours.
鑑於1999年的一次火山噴發迫使附近地區超過2.5萬人撤離，很難低估實際的火山側翼崩塌可能對圖古拉瓦附近的居民造成的威脅。
Nonetheless, according to Hickey and his team's modelling, significant surface deformation on Tungurahua's west flank (involving temporary uplift of about 3.5 cm, resulting from recent volcanic activity), is suggestive that a collapse could perhaps occur if the stresses do not abate.
儘管如此，根據Hickey和他的團隊的模型，Tungurahua的西側表面明顯的變形(包括由於最近的火山活動造成的約3.5釐米的暫時隆起)，這表明如果應力沒有減弱，可能會發生崩塌。
Shallow and rapid pressurisation from this inclined deformation source can generate shear stress along the collapse surface, which increases with greater volumes of magma, the authors write in their paper.
作者在他們的論文中寫道:“來自這個傾斜變形源的淺層快速增壓會在崩塌表面產生剪應力，而剪應力會隨著岩漿量的增加而增加。”
This may contribute to slope instability during future unrest episodes and promote flank failure, with general application to other volcanoes worldwide displaying asymmetric deformation patterns.
“這可能會在未來的動盪時期造成邊坡的不穩定，並促進邊坡的破壞，而世界範圍內其他火山的普遍應用顯示出不對稱的變形模式。”
That said, the researchers acknowledge that their study is no prediction of certain doom. If anything, the findings could help us monitor these processes, so we can try to anticipate ahead of time what future conditions might trigger catastrophe.
儘管如此，研究人員承認，他們的研究並不是對某種厄運的預測。如果有什麼不同的話，這些發現可以幫助我們監測這些過程，這樣我們就可以嘗試提前預測未來可能引發災難的情況。
Magma supply is one of a number of factors that can cause or contribute to volcanic flank instability, so while there is a risk of possible flank collapse, the uncertainty of these natural systems also means it could remain stable, Hickey says.
“岩漿供應是導致或促成火山翼面不穩定的諸多因素之一，因此儘管存在翼面可能崩塌的風險，這些自然系統的不確定性也意味著它可能保持穩定，”Hickey說。
Let's hope so. If not, the throat of fire may be about to speak again, and it won't be good news for anyone close enough to hear.
讓我們希望如此。否則，火喉可能會再次發出聲音，這對任何靠近它的人來說都不是好消息。
The findings are reported in Earth and Planetary Science Letters.
這些發現發表在《地球與行星科學快報》上。
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