譯者 王為
文中黑字部分為原文，藍字部分為譯文，紅字部分為譯者註釋或補充說明
Will equities become the next QE asset class the Fed buys?
By Robin Marshall
The Fed recently broadened the range of assets it will buy in Quantitative Easing (QE) programs, to include corporate bonds and sub-investment grade issues, supplementing US Treasuries and (agency) MBS. Given the severity and broad-based nature of the shock to the US economy from the coronavirus, this begs the question as to whether the Fed will follow the Bank of Japan’s lead and include US equities in its range of QE assets?
最近，美聯儲擴大了其量化寬鬆計劃買入資產的範圍，在美國國債以及機構類按揭質押債券之外，將公司債和低於投資級的債券也納入其中。考慮到美國經濟受新冠疫情衝擊的程度如此之深、範圍如此之廣，這就引來一個問題：下一步，美聯儲是否會步日本銀行的後塵，將股票也作為量化寬鬆計劃買入資產的標的。
To answer the question, the Fed’s QE programs should be seen in historical context. The Fed first adopted “unconventional” monetary policy in 2008/09, as it became clear that to supply further stimulus to the US economy, zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) alone would not restore full employment and stable inflation. QE policies have since comprised asset purchase programs, of varying size and duration, to supplement adjustment of policy interest rates and forward rate guidance.
為了找到這個問題的答案，應將美聯儲的量化寬鬆計劃放在歷史的大背景下予以考量。美聯儲於2008-2009年期間首度採取了“非常規”的貨幣政策，因為當時的情況很清晰地顯示，為更進一步地刺激美國經濟，僅憑零利率政策是無法實現充分就業及確保通脹穩定增長的。在此之後，量化寬鬆政策開始與資產買入計劃結合起來，買入期限和規模各不相同的資產，作為對調整政策性利率以及引導未來利率走向等傳統貨幣政策手段的補充。
Early QE policies began with US Treasuries and MBS tosolve a credit crunch
量化寬鬆計劃最初是從買入美國國債和按揭質押債券開始，目的是解決信用緊縮的問題
During the GFC (and its aftermath), the policy focus was on easing the “credit crunch” on companies and households, by driving down the cost of capital, and unfreezing housing market finance after the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market. This was achieved by buying US Treasuries and (agency) mortgage backed securities (MBS). The Fed also bought US Tips to prevent the entrenchment of very low inflation expectations and introduced a formal inflation target in 2012 (of 2%). In expanding QE, the Fed’s balance sheet grew from under $1trillion in September 2008 to over $5 trillion today, as the chart below shows.
在2008年金融危機期間以及之後一段時期裡，美國貨幣政策關注的重點被放在了通過降低資金的成本以及解凍在次貸按揭融資市場爆發危機後一度融資受阻的住房融資市場等手段緩解美國企業和家庭遇到的信用緊縮問題。這一目標是通過買入美國國債和機構類按揭質押債券實現的。美聯儲也買入了美國通脹保值國債以防止非常低的通脹預期在市場上紮下根來，並在2012年正式將通脹增速的目標值設定在2%。在引入量化寬鬆的舉措之後，美聯儲資產負債表的總規模從2008年9月份的不到1萬億美元升至當前的5萬億美元以上，如下圖所示。
Fed balance sheet
美聯儲資產負債總量的變化
Source: FTSE Russell / Refinitiv. Data as of April 2020.
But the coronavirus shock led to broader QE, and lower asset quality criteria
但新冠疫情引發的動盪導致覆蓋範圍更加廣泛的量化寬鬆計劃出臺以及買入資產的門檻降低
The current economic shock from the coronavirus poses new and broader challenges for the Fed. Narrow focus on the financial system and housing market, drove early QE programs. The evolution of Fed policy since the coronavirus shock began in Q1 is shown in the table below. Initially, the Fed deployed more of the same QE from the GFC, re-instating zero interest rates and resuming US Treasury and MBS purchases. But as the severity of the shock grew, the Fed has broadened the range of assets purchased in its QE programs and lowered the asset quality criteria for those purchases.
新冠疫情給美國經濟帶來的衝擊如今正在給美聯儲帶來新的更廣泛的挑戰， 聯儲將關注點集中放到金融體系以及住房市場上面，未雨綢繆地推出了量化寬鬆計劃。在下表中可以看到，新冠疫情在一季度開始對經濟構成衝擊以來美聯儲貨幣政策的變化。危機爆發之初，美聯儲採取的應對之策大多已應用於2008年金融危機期間，重啟零利率政策並再次買入美國國債和住房按揭質押債券。但隨著危機不斷惡化，美聯儲擴大了其量化寬鬆計劃中資產買入的範圍，並降低了所購資產的信用評級門檻。
Chronology of key Fed policy announcements during Coronavirus Crisis
新冠危機爆發以來美聯儲先後公佈的各項主要的貨幣政策舉措
March 3-15: Fed funds rate cut to 0-0.25% zero again
3月3日-15日：將聯邦基金利率的波動區間再次調降至0-0.25%
March 15: Resumption of QE programs – $500bn in US Treasuries, $200bn in (Agency) MBS purchases over coming months
3月15日：重啟量化寬鬆政策——在未來幾個月裡將購入5000億美元的美國國債和2000億美元的機構類按揭質押債券
March 23: Term Asset-Backed Securities loan Facility (TALF) announced to support credit flows to consumers and businesses. Establishment of Corporate Credit Facility. Pledge to go beyond $700bn in US Treasury and MBS purchases
3月23日：宣佈推出帶有固定期限的資產質押債券貸款便利TALF以向美國消費者和企業界提供融資，成立公司債融資便利，承諾其規模將超過購入美國國債和機構類按揭質押債券所需的7000億美元
April 9: Primary and Secondary Market Credit facility of up to $750bn, allowing purchases of corporate bonds, including high-yield ETFs. Various programs to ensure credit flows to small and mid-size businesses. A Municipal Liquidity facility of up to $500bn for lending to states and municipalities
4月9日：推出額度最高可達7500億美元的一級市場和二級市場融資便利，可購入包括高收益債在內的美國公司債；推出各類融資計劃確保美國中小企業的資金需求；推出最高額度可達5000億美元的市政機構流動性便利為各州和各市政當局提供融資。
Will this range of QE assets be sufficient?當前資產買入計劃的覆蓋範圍是否足以解決問題？
With the Fed now prepared to purchase, or lend against, assets as diverse as US Treasuries, MBS, Munis, investment-grade and high-yield credit, this shows a journey towards buying riskier assets to broaden the impact of QE.
美聯儲當前準備買進或作為貸款抵押的資產林林總總，包括美國國債、按揭質押債券、市政債券、投資級和高收益級的公司債，說明聯儲正在轉向買進高風險的資產以擴大量化寬鬆的影響範圍。
Lowering the quality of assets in QE programs increases risks to the Fed’s balance sheet. However, if the Fed simply buys risk-free assets like Treasuries when monetary policy is near, or in a liquidity trap, it is unlikely to boost growth or inflation.
降低量化寬鬆計劃中買入資產的信用評級門檻會給聯儲資產負債表帶來風險。但是，如果美聯儲只買美國國債這樣的高安全性資產，當貨幣政策的效果正在接近或已經處於流動性陷阱的時候，是不太可能對經濟增長或通脹增速起到提振作用的。
The big asset class not currently included is equities. The chart below shows that buying equities might help put a safety net under household net worth because of the correlation between household net worth and equity valuations. If so, this would prevent a collapse in consumer confidence and expenditure from reinforcing deflationary pressures.
在市值比較大的資產中目前尚未被列入聯儲買入計劃的就是股票，下圖顯示，買入股票相當於給美國家庭的淨資產鋪上了一張安全網，因為在家庭財富及股票的估值水平之間存在正相關關係。如果聯儲買進股票一事能成真，應能避免美國消費者的信心和開支因通縮壓力的加大而出現崩潰。
US equities and household net worth美國股市的總市值與美國家庭財富的對比，圖中深藍線為羅素1000指數，淺藍線為美國家庭財富總量
Source: FTSE Russell / Refinitiv. Data as pf April 2020.
Recent Fed move to include high yield bonds may prove significant
美聯儲近期將高收益債納入資產買入的範圍可能具有很重要的意義
Buying equities – a much bigger asset class – would also supplement the support for companies from the corporate bond purchases, announced on April 9. Indeed, it could also be argued the Fed has already risked moral hazard by making corporate bond purchases, including high-yield credit, so it would not be a big further step to buy equities.
美聯儲如果決定買股票（股票市場的規模遠超其他資產）應是在4月9日做出的買入公司債的決策之外對企業提供的另一項支持。確實，有觀點認為美聯儲買進公司債包括高收益債的決策已經引發了道德風險，因此買股票不應被視為是繼續往前邁的一大步。
Finally, given that the Bank of Japan has been buying equity ETFs since April 2013 as part of a Quantitative and Qualitative Easing program, the Fed would not have a first mover disadvantage.
最後要說的是，考慮到日本銀行已從2013年4月開始買入股票型交易所交易基金作為量化和質化寬鬆計劃的一部分，美聯儲應該不會遇到第一個吃螃蟹的人才會碰到的風險。
