01
今日，作為9月份的最後一個交易日，上證指數在萬千股民的抱怨中，終於重上2800點，並以兩陽夾一陰的上攻態勢結束了節前的交易，給股民留下了長假之後會更好的想像。畢竟老大都說了，不管國企還是民企，都要支持發展壯大。總理也在百忙之中，修改行程，不顧舟車勞頓，去看望了民營的海上石化企業。一切都在朝著投資者期待的方向轉變，更何況，我們11月份開始較大範圍的減稅，估計對進出口企業也會是個利好，本來各個國家的人民都是希望稅收越少越好的。
02
由於第三季度，從股市上來說，今日已經結束了，所以將今年以來場內基金的表現拉了一個排行表，結果相當令我滿意：前三季度，漲幅領先的基金只有兩類，一類是油氣類，另一類就是投資美國股市的基金！在標題中，我說我押中了一類，是因為我對其中的一類進行了真實的投資，而從判斷上，我其實是兩類都押中了，只不過去下半年的時候，油氣類的基金表現太過反覆，沒有美股基金走小步、不停步地喜悅，所以明知道這一板塊大概率會漲，還是耐不住性子清倉了。
直接上圖：
從圖上可以看出，漲幅最大的場內基金是原油類的基金，去年下半年，原油價格還在40到50美元一桶的範圍內掙扎，經常是進2退1.8，雖然明知道油價在這個位置是待不住的，原油價格一定是走在上升通道內的，所以在公號裡也一直有推薦原油類基金，但是受不了原油基金的煩，終於清倉了。
上述這些與石油掛鉤的基金中，嘉實原油的表現最為穩定，基本上是一路上揚的，不過它的成交量在幾隻原油基金中相對較少，交易的便捷性不夠。
其中最好玩的是易方達的原油基金，在年初1元左右的時候買進，到5月份創了新高1.67元，然後又一路回調到1.12元左右，然後再次上漲到1.55元，有兩次大波段可以交易，如果有較好的判斷能力，可以賺上兩波，第一波可以有60%左右的收益，第二波也有約35%左右的收益，合起來收益率有望超過100%！當然如果一直持有不動，三個季度的收益也有46%，相當不錯的。
目前，上述幾隻石油基金都存在不同程度的溢價，顯示投資者對石油的未來依然十分看好，不過如果是打算新開倉的朋友，可以等待油價回調或是溢價減少再考慮進入。
03
而另一類基金卻有幸拿住了，那就是投資美國股市的基金，因為美國基金表現實在太好了，基本上是大漲小回，節奏也很明顯，盤中帶了一幫小朋友偶爾弄個短差，基本上從沒失手過，每次弄個3%，攤低一下定投的成本還是超級爽的。
從上表中可以看出，本號一直力推的納指ETF以及美國消費，在場內基金的漲幅榜排名上都進入了前十，更可喜的是，漲幅都超過了20%！年化收益率均超過了25%！
其實此前之所以判斷這兩個板塊成功率最高，還是從基本面來考慮的，原油類的基金，主要考慮到油價在40到50美元一桶實在偏低，基本上等於上個世紀70年代左右的價格水平，真是用腳趾頭想想也不太可能，上漲是必然的。
而美國股市，雖然有加息的陰影，但是加息實際上反應的是經濟增長比較強勁，而美國的減稅，尤其是對企業的減稅，加上美元對人民幣的升值，以及美國對全球新的貿易關稅的談判，都有很大的可能增強美國企業的銷售。
可以說，投資其實就是正確地預見什麼是必然的，然後耐心地守候就行了。只不過，有時候必然性到來的比較晚，或是會經歷多次的反覆。所以，耐心是非常重要的。
04
當然，在眼下這個時點，一年前的歷史數據或許已經太久遠了。投資者可能最關心的還是9月份的基金表現。
從上表可以看出，原油，受伊朗被制裁、俄羅斯的出口也將受限的影響，油價依然走在上升通道之中，而消費類的白酒與食品相當強勢，此外就是銀行與保險加上上證50，基本上可以理解為是除了券商的金融機構，外加國防與軍工走得比較強。
個人的判斷是，銀行與保險前景是相當不錯的，軍工題材不少，但是業績不佳，只適合短炒，而消費類下半年往上半年走，是旺季，也有較好的買入價值。
平點金基已關聯訊飛快讀基金小程序~
雙語閱讀~
In the first three quarters, the two types of funds have risen well. I am in a category. What about you?
Today, as the last trading day in September, the Shanghai Composite Index finally regained 2,800 points in the complaints of thousands of investors, and ended the pre-holiday transaction with the two-in-one yin attack, leaving investors After the long holiday, it will be better and better.
After all, the boss said that regardless of state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, they must support the development and growth. The Prime Minister was also busy with the schedule, revised the itinerary, and went to the private offshore petrochemical enterprises regardless of the boat. Everything is changing in the direction that investors are expecting. What's more, we started a large-scale tax cut in November, and it is estimated that it will be a good thing for import and export companies. People in various countries hope that the tax is as small as possible.
Since the third quarter, from the stock market, today is over, so this year, the performance of the fund has pulled a ranking, the results are quite satisfactory to me: in the first three quarters, there are only two types of funds that lead the increase, one Classes are oil and gas, and the other is a fund that invests in the US stock market! In the title, I said that I was in a category because I made a real investment in one of them. From the judgment, I actually have two types of bets, but only in the second half of the year. The performance of oil and gas funds is too repetitive. There is no US stock fund to take a small step and not stop to be happy, so knowing that this sector will increase in probability, it is still unable to withstand the clearance.
Directly above:
As can be seen from the figure, the largest fund in the market is the crude oil fund. In the second half of last year, the crude oil price was still struggling within the range of 40 to 50 US dollars a barrel, often with a return of 1.8, although it is known that the oil price is This position is unstoppable, the price of crude oil must be in the rising channel, so there is always a recommendation for crude oil funds in the public number, but can not stand the annoyance of the crude oil fund, and finally cleared the position.
Among the above-mentioned oil-linked funds, Castrol crude oil has the most stable performance, basically rising all the way, but its trading volume is relatively small among several crude oil funds, and the transaction convenience is not enough.
At present, the above-mentioned several oil funds have different levels of premium, indicating that investors are still very optimistic about the future of oil, but if it is a friend who intends to open a new position, you can wait for the oil price to return or the premium to decrease before considering entering.
The most fun one is E Fund's crude oil fund, which was bought at around 1 yuan at the beginning of the year. It hit a new high of 1.67 yuan in May, then another round of callback to around 1.12 yuan, and then rose to 1.55 yuan again. The band can be traded. If you have good judgment, you can earn two waves. The first wave can have a profit of about 60%, and the second wave also has a profit of about 35%. Together, the yield is expected to exceed 100%! Of course, if you keep holding it, the income in the three quarters is 46%, which is quite good.
The other type of fund has the honor to take it, that is, the fund that invests in the US stock market, because the US fund table is actually too good, basically it is a big ups and downs, the rhythm is also very obvious, and a group of children are occasionally made in the dish. A short difference, basically never missed, every time you get 3%, the cost of a fixed investment is still super cool.
As can be seen from the above table, the Nasdaq ETF and the US consumption that this number has been pushing all have entered the top ten in the ranking of the fund's increase list. What is more gratifying is that the increase has exceeded 20%! Annualized yields are over 25%!
In fact, the reason why the two boards have the highest success rate is that they are considered from the fundamentals. The crude oil fund mainly considers that the oil price is really low at 40 to 50 US dollars, which is basically equal to the 1970s. The price level is really impossible to think about with the toes, and the rise is inevitable.
In the US stock market, although there is a shadow of interest rate hikes, the interest rate hike actually reflects the relatively strong economic growth, while the US tax cuts, especially for corporate tax cuts, plus the appreciation of the US dollar against the renminbi, and the US Negotiations on new trade tariffs are likely to increase sales of US companies.
It can be said that investment is actually predicting what is inevitable, and then waiting patiently. However, sometimes the inevitability comes later, or it will experience repeated iterations. Therefore, patience is very important.
Of course, at this point in time, the historical data of a year ago may have been too long. What investors may be most concerned about is the fund performance in September.
As can be seen from the above table, crude oil, due to Iran may be sanctioned, Russia's exports will also be limited, oil prices are still in the rising channel, while consumer liquor and food are quite strong, in addition to banks and insurance plus On the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, it can basically be understood as a financial institution other than brokers, plus defense and military workers are relatively strong.
Personal judgment is that the prospects of banking and insurance are quite good. There are many military themes, but the performance is not good. It is only suitable for short-term speculation, while the consumer category is going to the first half of the year, which is the peak season and has a good buying value.
親愛的讀者：
為了給大家提供更好的投資公募基金的相關諮詢服務，我們將建立緊密的、喜歡基金知識的基金小密圈。
我們將以公平客觀的態度為廣大讀者提供基金交易最急需的知識，最穩健的投資策略，並及時對各基金品種做出點評，為讀者尋找中長期大概率能夠實現正收益的優秀基金品種。
為了提升小密圈質量，同時也為了維持運營成本，我們設置了一定的門檻。
現在您只需發送50元紅包，就可獲得無限次提問相關基金問題的機會（相同的問題僅限一次）。
我們期待您的加入！
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