去年10月底，中国国家主席习近平在一次重要会议中强调要推动新一代人工智能健康发展；今年2月份，美国总统特朗普也签署了行政令，欲推动美国人工智能发展。随着这些重量级国家领导人的关注，人工智能成为一个占据头条的热词。
Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed boosting healthy development in a new-generation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in late Oct, 2018. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order launching the American AI Initiative in Feb this year. With the attention of these heavyweight leaders firmly on AI, it has become a buzzword that continues to dominate headlines everywhere.
人工智能将如何改变中国的制造工业？人工智能又能应用在别的什么领域？中国和美国在这个领域会成为竞争对手吗？随着人工智能的发展，未来的人类社会将是什么样子？
How will AI change China's manufacturing industry? Where else will it be used? Are China and the U.S. rivals in the area of AI? What happens when people use these advancements?
这些问题都能在China Focus对创新工场董事长李开复的采访中找到答案。
These are all questions China Focus put to Kai-Fu Lee, chairman of Sinovation Ventures.
中国在发展人工智能方面有何优势？
What Advantages Does China Have in Developing AI?
李开复：我认为中国在发展人工智能领域方面的优势非常多，中国拥有广阔的市场、丰富的大数据资源、坚韧执着的企业家以及众多出色的风险投资人，他们有充足的资金来维持企业的良好运转。中国幅员辽阔，人口庞大，积累了丰富的数据资源，因此，中国很多企业都可以运用人工智能来开发有价值的应用程序。
Kai-Fu Lee: I think China simultaneously has a large market and extremely rich data resources, tenacious entrepreneurs and lots of good VCs (venture capitalists) with lots of money. China has a lot more data which allows the entrepreneurs to build valuable applications using AI to optimize these applications.
▲ 在北京，一名美团外卖配送员正在进行外卖派送工作。美团网是当前中国最大的电商服务平台之一。（图/中国日报）
A deliveryman for Meituan-Dianping, China's largest on-demand service platform, delivers food in Beijing. (Photo/China Daily)
比如，美团网看上去只是在做外卖业务，和人工智能没什么关联，但实际上他们拥有广泛的用户群体，通过人工智能他们能更直接地了解到用户想吃些什么。
For example, a company like Meituan in China, they are a food delivery company, which doesn't sound like AI but once you deploy and have a lot of users, you actually realize that you need AI to understand and figure out what people want to eat.
就这样，通过人工智能长期的数据采集和持续的计算分析，美团网的每份外卖运单在成本上节约了70美分。这家传统互联网公司，通过合理运用人工智能来降低成本，从而实现了利润最大化并迅速发展成了“超级独角兽”企业。我认为他们上市后的市值也许会高达500亿美元，这将远超美国的Yelp和Groupon两个外卖应用软件。
Through accumulative data collection and computation, over time, they could reduce the cost of delivery to 70 cents per delivery. That allows an internet company, not an AI company, to use AI to maximize profit, minimize delivery costs and all of a sudden, with a large amount of data, become a super unicorn. They will be worth, I think, $50 billion when they go public, much more than the U.S. Yelp or Groupon.
同样重要的是，企业家们有能力来找到所谓的产品市场定位。欧洲人认为美国人更努力，在美国中部和东海岸生活的人则认为在硅谷人更努力。但与硅谷相比，中国人在工作上比他们都更加努力和坚韧。
Equally important are entrepreneurs who can find the so-called product-market fit. In Europe, people think of the U.S. as hardworking and tenacious, in the east coast or the mid-west of the U.S., people think of Silicon Valley as hardworking and tenacious, but compared to Silicon Valley, China is much more hardworking and tenacious.
▲ 深圳市罗湖区曾经是一个贫穷的村庄，现在到处都是高楼大厦。（图/中国日报）
Luohu district in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province in southeastern China, which used to be a poor village, is now a flourishing residential area with modern apartment buildings. (Photo/China Daily)
在中国，一个典型的创业公司经常会实行“九九六”或“九九七”的工作制度，这意味着工作时间是早9点到晚9点，一周工作6至7天。我认为中国企业家非常渴望成功的原因有许多，其中很重要的一点是，中国一直是发展中国家，很多企业家的父辈经历了十代甚至二十代贫穷期，背负着家族期望的他们，迫切希望改写自己的命运，因此他们决心放手一搏，在这片领域闯出一方天地。
In China, the typical start-up company is either 9-9-6 or 9-9-7, which means 9 a.m.-9 p.m., six days a week or seven days a week. I think Chinese entrepreneurs are extremely hungry for success for many reasons, one being that because China has been a developing country, there are many entrepreneurs that have been poor for 10 or 20 generations and family expectations and their own desire to prove themselves are tremendous.
另外，马云的故事感召了许多人，这不仅是因为马云在商业上取得了成功，个性魅力十足，非常擅长演说，更是因为他一开始也只是个平凡的创业者，大学毕业后的他甚至连份在肯德基的工作都得不到，这与他之后所取得了巨大成功构成了戏剧性的反差。因此，他的励志故事会让其他创业者也认同创业是个千载难逢的机会，他们能借此帮助家里摆脱贫困。如果马云可以做到这一点，那么他们也不妨一试。
Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma is a great role model because not only is he successful, charismatic and a great speaker, but also, because he came from humble beginnings. He couldn't even get a job at KFC after college, so other entrepreneurs feel like this is a once in a 20-generation opportunity for them to make it and potentially help their families get out of poverty. If Jack Ma can do it, they feel they should at least have a shot.
人工智能在中国的应用情况如何？
How Is AI Being Used in China?
李开复：医疗保健是人工智能目前最重要的应用领域，也获得了大家的普遍认可。人工智能常作为辅助工具，运用于放射、核磁共振成像、CT平扫或病理学等医疗领域。因为在这些领域，人工智能可以通过分析患者的病史，来判断应进行仪器扫描、物理检查、化学检测中的哪些医疗项目。
Kai-FuLee：Healthcare is the most important, and I think universally agreed upon, use of AI. It is to be used as a tool to help with radiology, X-rays, MRIs, CTs, or pathology, considering patient history, determining what the scans and exams and blood tests might represent.
未来，人工智能还可以帮助诊断这些病症，预估发病的可能性，判断过去的治疗是否会引发新的症状，以及估量不同治疗方法的成功概率。
In the future, it could also help with diagnoses, the probability of conditions and past treatments and outcomes leading to new symptoms and diagnoses, and various treatments available and the likelihood of success.
▲ 2018年4月3日，广州某医院内，患者正使用人工智能机器人进行挂号。（图/中新社）
People use an AI-powered robot to check in at a hospital in Guangzhou, South China's Guangdong Province on April 3, 2018. (Photo/China News)
比如说，每位医生在他或她的职业生涯中最多能治疗10000名患者，阅读1000篇论文和500本书。但机器人医生却可以采集10亿人的医疗记录，长期积累起庞大的医学知识库，而这些能力却是人类医生所望尘莫及的。
Each doctor treats about 10,000 patients in his or her lifetime, while also building on the 1,000 papers and 500 books that they read. But an AI device can be trained on a billion people and their medical records, and it can be amassing all of the knowledge that each doctor has into a giant database.
现实中，即使是最好的医生也无法阅读完所有的论文或进行过全部临床试验，而患者可能会因此错过使用新药或通过临床试验获得更新更好的治疗方法的机会。然而，人工智能却可以做到这一点。
AI can learn all the latest treatments. Even the best doctors cannot read all the papers written or be aware of all clinical trials done, thus patients may miss opportunities to use a new drug or a clinical trial.
▲ 2018年，在中国上海举行的世界人工智能大会上, 参观者观看机器人手术系统演示。（图/新华社）
Visitors watch a demonstration of robot surgery system during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) 2018 in Shanghai, east China. (Photo/Xinhua)
在未来，医学将变得个性化，每一位患者都会得到个性化的诊疗。这就好比人们平时浏览微博或今日头条时，可以定制不同的领域，这样每个人都能看到各自感兴趣的内容。但是，目前大多数癌症患者所接受的诊疗手段还很单一。
In the future, medicine will become personalized, so that each person may get a different treatment. When you open Facebook, everybody looks at a different news feed, we don't all see the same news feed. But when you treat cancer, most people get a standard treatment, overlooking the possible alternate options.
试想一下，就像我们平时进行内容个性化定制一样，患者在接受治疗时，也能根据自己的病情而得到更有针对性的治疗方式，这样该有多好。
But imagine, just like each of us may want to read a different news feed, each of us may have a different type of treatment that is maximally effective.
在人工智能方面，中国可以和美国比肩吗？
Is China Catching up with the U.S. in AI?
李开复：如果以中国在人工智能领域所创造的市值、税收和用户群等标准进行衡量，中国的确在语音识别、机器翻译、计算机可视化、人工智能银行和无人机等方面处于领先地位。
Kai-FuLee：In terms of market value, tax volume and user base, China leads in voice recognition, machine translation and computer visualization, and probably in AI banking and drones.
▲ 2018年4月22日，在福建福州举办的首届数字中国建设成果展览会上，孩子们被展出的机器人吸引。（图/新华社）
The photo taken on April 22 shows the a group of children fixing theireyes on a robot exhibited at the First Digital China Summit& Exhibition opening in Fuzhou, capital of Fujianprovince on April 22, 2018. (Photo/Xinhua)
中国企业的优势往往在于编写代码，并确保其实现精准快捷，及时解决客户的问题，在以上这些方面，中国做得比其他任何国家都出色。
Chinese companies are very strong at writing code, making sure it's lean and fast and solves customers' problems, probably stronger than any other country.
美国做得最好的是人工智能在B2B领域的应用，即企业使用人工智能来提高销售额，提高员工参与度和客户满意度，协助管理人力资源等等。在自动驾驶汽车、机器人等方面也领先一筹。
The U.S. certainly leads in autonomous vehicles and robotics, and it is the strongest in B2B AI, that is, using AI in enterprise applications to help companies improve sales, manage customer and employee satisfaction and human resources.
▲ 自动驾驶概念车型NIOEVE 2020年将在美国量产。
Autonomous vehicles concept model NiO EVE 2020 to be batch production in the United States.
简单来说，在全球人工智能领域，中美双方势均力敌，并遥遥领先于其他国家。若全球范围内任何一个国家或企业在技术上有所突破，当前人工智能格局或将重新洗牌。我们无法预测哪个国家或哪家企业何时能实现突破，但可以确定的是，在过去的五到七年里，人工智能领域确实没有取得新突破。
So roughly speaking, it is about 50-50 right now. But if there is a breakthrough, I think everything gets reshuffled. So whichever country or company makes that breakthrough, it will change the game. But we can't predict when breakthroughs will come. I can say for the last five to seven years, there have been no other breakthroughs.
有些人可能会对此感到困惑，也许他们认为：“嘿，人工智能一直在更新换代，并正快速地赶超人类。我经常能看到 ‘人工智能可以在辩论中击败人类’ 或 ‘人工智能在医学图像分析中比医生更厉害’ 等新闻报道。你怎么说没有突破呢？”
Some people may be confused because they think, hey, I see a breakthrough every week, there is AI beating humans at Go, at debating, in medical image analysis. What do you mean there are no breakthroughs?
▲ 在湖北省襄阳市平安银行襄阳支行内, 一个人工智能机器人正在接待顾客。（图/中国日报）
An artificial intelligence-powered robot welcomes a customer in the Xiangyang branch of Ping An Bank in Xiangyang, Hubei province in central China. (Photo/China Daily)
但实际上，这些有突破性的应用只是根据一篇具有突破性意义的研究论文开发出来的，这篇论文的作者是三位研究人员Jeff Henson，YoungLakon和YasuoBengio，他们撰写了一系列关于深度学习的论文，目前很多应用都是基于此开发出来。
These are merely applications built on the same research paper by Jeff Henson, Young Lakon and Yasuo Bengio. The three researchers wrote a set of papers on deep learning that was the one single breakthrough on which all the applications are built.
因此，如果中国继续保持人工智能的良好发展态势，也将有很大机会在该领域跃居第一，或者保持第二名的位置，总之实力非常强大。
So, if this continues, I think China will have a very good chance to become number one, or at least a very strong number two in the field of AI.
中国人工智能发展前景如何？
What Does the Future Hold for AI and China?
李开复：在接下来的10到15年里，我可以非常自信地说，中美两国将成为世界上最伟大的人工智能超级大国。据预估，人工智能将会创造17万亿美元的超级市场价值，也将在减轻贫困和饥饿方面发挥重要作用 。
Kai-FuLee：I think in the next 10 or 15 years, I can say with great confidence that China and the U.S. will be the two greatest AI superpowers in the world. AI will deliver tremendous value, it will create about $17 trillion in the next 10 years. So, the impact of AI, in terms of reducing poverty and hunger, will be tremendous.
未来30到40年，人类所有常规性的工作都将由人工智能取代，人们将从这些单调重复性的工作中解放出来。当你下班回家感到浑身疲惫时，你可能不再需要亲自下厨准备今天的晚饭；当你去商店购物时，你所需要的一切都将由人工智能机器人自动传送给你；如果你赶时间想吃快餐解决这一顿饭，那你可以在路上就点完餐，到店里就能吃上准备好的食物，而这一切都可以由机器人完成。
Eventually, in 30 or 40 years, all routine jobs will be done by AI. People will be incredibly liberated because they no longer have to cook dishes. In stores,everything you need will automatically be sent to you and if you want fast food, it will be instantly prepared and available when you arrive.
▲ 肯德基上海一家分店的百度智能机器人可以与客户交谈, 接受食品订单。（图/中国日报）
A Baidu Deur assistant at a KFC outlet in Shanghai can talk with customers and take food orders. (Photo/China Daily)
试想一下你有一半的时间得到解放，不需要受无意义的重复性工作牵绊，而可以专心做你喜欢的事情，并花更多时间陪伴你爱的人们，这样人类会有更高的幸福感。如果接下来的40年里，我们能努力规避人工智能带来的风险与挑战，这些场景真的会实现。
Imagine half of your time being freed up, not having to do routine work and being able to do things that you love and spend more time with the people you love. I think that is the likely scenario in 40 years.
话虽如此，接下来的20到25年里我们的确会面临很多挑战。比如，现在每个国家都有不同类型的法律，这使获取广泛的数据变得十分困难。
But having said that, it will be a rather challenging in the next 20-25 years because currently, every country has different kinds of laws that makes access to large amounts of data more difficult.
例如，全球最大的高质量癌症数据库只有两万个样本。但对于计算机的可视化技术，一个人脸识别器要接受50亿个样本的训练。看看这两者的差距吧，我们还有很长的路要走。我是癌症幸存者，因此，我知道90％的癌症患者都很乐意提供他们的治疗相关数据，为人工智能研究出一分力。
For example, the largest high-quality cancer database only has 20,000 samples, but for computer visualization, a face recognizer is trained on 5 billion samples, so look at that gap. Thus, I think we still have a long way to go. As a cancer survivor myself, I personally think 90 percent of cancer patients would happily donate their data for the purpose of AI research.
▲ 浙江省瑞安市，在温州瑞明工业股份有限公司的厂房内，工业机器人正在搬运生产材料。（图/新华社）
Industrial robots move production material in a factory of Wenzhou Ruiming Industrial Co.Ltd in Ruian. (Photo/Xinhua)
另外，就目前来看，很多人的工作都是常规性的。如果人工智能取代了他们赖以生存的工作，这些人是否能接受这一情况，仍是个问题。我们有责任为这个行业发展做出更稳妥的规划，为全人类建设一个更美好的未来。
But governments don't seem to allow this to happen. There are many people whose jobs are largely routine and those will be over time taken by AI. There are people whose job is the meaning of their lives and I think they can't accept such a utopian answer, but I also think we need to be responsible and help plan a good future for all of us.
在未来，一切皆有可能。虽然人工智能的应用确实存在挑战，需要我们花一定时间努力去克服。但在未来15到20年里，我确信通过使用人工智能，人类的整体健康水平将得到显著提高，平均寿命也会得以延长，人们也许会因而对人工智能有所改观。
So, the possibilities are endless, but I think there are challenges in the application of AI that will take time. Still, if we look at a 15-20-year horizon, I do think our overall health and longevity will be significantly enhanced through the use of AI.
撰文 / China Focus团队
图片 / 网络
閱讀更多 ChinaFocus聚焦中國 的文章
