各位好我是挖坑狂魔小丹尼。
Hi, I’m Danny, the Digging Madness.
儘管人人都在談5G，但仍有很多人對5G的作用非常懷疑，因為除了看小姐姐宅舞和打王者榮耀不卡了，5G作用還體現在每月增長的流量套餐賬單上。
Everyone talks about 5G everywhere, but many people are still very skeptical about the role of 5G. Besides the smoother experience of watching otaku dance and playing Arena of Valor, the impact of 5G can also be found in the monthly increased mobile data plan bill.
說實話目前5G的應用場景確實很有限，而且價格很貴，理想豐滿的同時確實現實有骨感的一面，這就像你發現人人吹捧的大腕明星也會有“打臉永動機”的一面。
To be honest, the current application scenarios of 5G are quite limited, while the fee is quite high. The ideal is terrific and the reality is tough. It's like when you find a superstar that everyone touts sometimes keeps saying a thing and doing another.
尤其是對於老司機來說，他們對於5G時代在自動駕駛方面的應用就更加不屑一顧了: “老子幾十年駕齡，你能飆過我秋名山車神、帝都二環十三郎、魔都炸街小王子？”
For those experienced drives, they are even more dismissive of the autopilot powered by 5G: "I've been driving for decades, how the autopilot can beat me? Not even Dominic can keep up with my speed."
前兩天我去了趟上海，發現上海榮威滿地跑，最近還看到榮威搞了個R標5G電動車，我就跟你們一樣對這玩意更加懷疑了：5G真的能代替老司機開車嗎？
I visited Shanghai a couple of days ago and found Roewe all over the place. Recently Roewe has released a 5G electric car with a newly designed “R” logo. I'm just as skeptical as you are: Can 5G really replace experienced drivers?
我是小丹尼，談車說科技，本集視頻仍然遵循我的標準：隨你反駁。
I’m Danny, I talk about tech and cars. As usual, all information used in my video is authentic and first-hand. You’re welcome to disagree with my arguments.
先說結論：儘管目前5G仍然存在開頭我所說的應用場景少、價格貴的問題，但絕不能低估未來5G的作用，尤其是5G在車的應用。
Conclusion goes first. Although the problems like the limited application scenarios and high fees do exist, the role of 5G should not be underestimated, especially its application on EVs.
能把握住機會的人才都是面向未來的，這就像我在DannyData上集奈飛老闆Reed Hasting早在1997年就堅定認為流媒體視頻是王道。
Chances are often seized by those who look forward, like Reed Hasting, the CEO of Netflix, that I introduced in my last episode about Netflix. He considered the future belongs to streaming media as early as 1997.
雖然老司機飆車確實不能被完全代替，但未來飆車很可能就像現在騎馬一樣，常規交通工具變為個人興趣愛好，正如馬斯克那句經典名言：
5G will hardly replace experienced drivers in racing cars, while the future racing might be like horse-riding nowadays. That is, regular transportation will become entertainment eventually. Just like one Elon Musk’s famous saying:
這個以後等我再講特斯拉再詳細聊吧，你們感興趣嗎？
I’ll talk more in my next Tesla episode. Anyone interested?
這裡我們要引入一個“丹尼5G模型”：
Here I’ll introduce you to the Danny 5G Model.
分成兩個維度，縱向維度是“應用”和“根本痛點”，橫向維度是“存量需求替代品”和“增量需求”。
It has two dimensions. The vertical dimension consists of "application" and "fundamental pain point", and the horizontal dimension consists of "stock demand substitute" and "incremental demand".
舉個例子你就明白了，目前很多人覺得5G的功能很雞肋，其實也非常可以理解，因為他們只是看到了左上角“存量需求替代品”的“應用”，比如語音控制車機“開窗”、“播放歌曲”和“導航”，
For example, many people now think that the function of 5G is like a white elephant. This is very understandable because they only see 5G functions as the "stock demand substitute" in the upper left corner of the model. Such as using voice control in a car to open the window, play songs and navigate.
其實這些功能完全可以用手機替代，而且需求也不是那麼迫切，深扒一步根本痛點其實是減少干擾。
In fact, these functions can be completely replaced by mobile phones, and the demand is not so urgent. If delve deeper, we’ll see that the fundamental pain point is to reduce interference.
其實大家更應該關注的是5G根本痛點有哪些增量需求，比如提高效率、減少意外和促進協同，在“丹尼5G模型”的右下角；更應該關注的是增量需求有哪些應用，在“丹尼5G模型”右上角，也就是我之後要講的三點。
People should focus more on what kind of incremental demand that the fundamental pain point of 5G will bring. Like enhancing efficiency, preventing accidents and promoting collaboration, which lie in the bottom right corner of the Danny 5G model. Also, the application of those incremental demand requires more attention, and this can be found in the upper right corner. I’ll talk about these three aspects in detail in the following part.
01 提高效率
先說第一點，提高效率。
Firstly, enhancing efficiency.
很多人都會有“路怒症”，開車都能開急眼，根本原因就是因為他人的低效和不文明駕駛，比如嫌棄他人等紅綠燈起步太慢、速度太慢跟前車不夠緊、亂加塞插隊等等，
Many people have “road rage”. The fundamental reason is the inefficiency and the uncivilized driving behavior of others. People get annoyed when others start slowly, drive slowly with a long following distance, overtake frequently, etc.
如果有數據統計，估計路怒罵街比打遊戲罵豬隊友的次數還要更多。解決路怒症糾紛的絕不能只靠警察叔叔，更要靠5G支撐的技術手段。
If there are statistics, it stands a good chance that the road rage behavior is more frequent than losing temper with teammates when playing games. To get rid of the road-rage incident, the police are not enough. We also need to rely on the technical means supported by 5G.
在5G之前，從1234G，主要是為了服務於“人與人”之間通信目的“多人運動”。而5G呢，卻是為了服務“物與物”和“人與物”之間的通信需求而生。也就是說，有了5G， 人類第一次將“物聯網”提升到和“人聯網”相同的級別。
The predecessors of 5G,1-2-3-4G, were mainly used to connect people. And 5G is born to serve the needs of “things-to-things” and “human-to-things” interaction. In other words, with 5G, the IoT (Internet of Things) has the same significance as the Internet of People for the first time.
而車聯網，一直被稱為5G物聯網的“第一場景”。
The Internet of Vehicles (IoV) has always been known as the “first scene” of the 5G IoT.
因為車聯網本身對通信網絡有很高的要求，匹配了我在之前DannyData第9集華為時提到過的5G四大特點：高速度、泛在網、低功耗、低時延，車聯網的嚴苛要求也是我們目前技術（包括LTE-V、NB-IoT、LoRa等）都無法完成的,
This IoV has strict requirements for cellular networks, which match the four key features of 5G as I mentioned in DannyData Episode 9 about Huawei: high speed, ubiquitous network, low power consumption, and low latency. Current technologies (including LTE-V, NB-IoT, LoRa, etc.） are not able to meet the strict criteria.
4G車聯車通信現狀
畢竟開車這件事涉及人命關天，家破人亡，只能依靠5G這個“老司機”了。
Since driving relates closely to life safety and there is a high traffic fatality rate, the ideal IoV can only be fully achieved with the help of 5G.
所以, 車聯網存在的真正價值，不只是遠程幫你監控調教車輛的各項參數，更不是給你自動調座椅、開空調啥的，這些都不是核心痛點。
Therefore, the existence of the Internet of Vehicles can bring much more value than monitoring the vehicle parameters remotely, let alone adjusting seats and the AC automatically. These are not even worth to be mentioned in this case.
車的本質仍是交通工具，需要解決的痛點就是交通問題。而交通的核心痛點只有兩個：城市內堵車堵到沒朋友，城際交通成本高、效率低。說白了就是平時上班堵成狗，回家過年爸媽急。解決這兩個核心問題，才是5G時代車的增量需求。
The essence of the vehicles is still a means of transportation. It is always the traffic problem that needs to be resolved. There are only two core pain points when talking about traffic: traffic congestions in the city, and the high costs with the low efficiency of intercity transportation, which can be easily found in commute time and the long time traveling home before Chinese New Year. These two issues are the incremental demand for vehicles in the 5G era.
平時效率低，往往是因為意外太多，說白了就是“動不動就出么蛾子”，尤其是對於極端環境來說，人為過失造成的意外會更多，比如雨雪天氣、疲勞酒駕、不耐心的駕校師傅帶出來的不靠譜的司機等等，都有可能發生意外。
The low efficiency is often caused by too many accidents. The risk of accidents caused by human mistakes will even increase under extreme circumstances, such as rain and snow, drowsy driving, drunk driving, and unreliable drivers taught by impatient instructors, etc.
隨著5G時代自動駕駛的介入，儘管現在自動駕駛看上去還是傻傻的呆萌，就是個鐵憨憨，但機器的厲害之處就在於強大的學習迭代能力，自動駕駛的Alpha狗很可能會比絕大多數人想象的更快出現。
Although autopilot looks unfunctional currently, the power of the machine lies in the abilities of learning and iterating. With the intervention of 5G, the “AlphaGo” for autopilot is likely to appear earlier than people expect.
02 提高舒適性
接著說第二點，提高舒適性。
Then to the second point, improving comfort.
很多人會把5G時代提高車舒適性簡單理解為幫你自動開窗戶、調座椅、自動掛P檔等等，其實更重要的是要意識到：提高舒適性可是判斷一項新技術能否進入普通大眾市場非常重要的因素，而不是隻成為極少數科技極客們把玩的小發明創造。
Many people simply consider the driving comfort in the 5G era as the automation of opening windows, adjusting seats, shifting gears, etc. In fact, it is more important to realize that comfort is a crucial factor when evaluating whether a new technology can enter the market rather than being a small cool invention played by few tech geeks.
就比如為什麼Google早在2012年就推出了谷歌眼鏡，而Facebook早在2014年就用20億美元巨資收購了Oculus VR，但為什麼仍然VR在普羅大眾之間還沒有普及開來呢？
For example, Google launched Google Glass as early as 2012, and Facebook acquired Oculus VR spending $2 billion in 2014, but why VR hasn’t been popular yet?
很重要的原因就是舒適性太差，時延問題容易讓人感到頭暈目眩。
One important reason is the uncomfortableness. The high latency is easy to cause motion sickness.
只有保證了基本的舒適性，才有可能吸引到更多開發者和用戶參與到新技術的開拓。
Only when basic comfort is guaranteed, it is possible to attract more developers and users to participate in the development of new technologies.
這就像微信先把基本的收發信息功能讓用戶用爽了，再去開發朋友圈、微信支付、小程序等附加功能，這個等我DannyData第12集講騰訊時再詳細聊吧，你們感興趣嗎？
This is like the development of WeChat. First it lets users enjoy using the basic messaging functions, then developed additional services such as Moments, WeChat Pay, and WeChat Mini Programs, etc. I will discuss in detail when I talk about Tencent in the 12thepisode of DannyData. Are you interested?
類似的，儘管現在各大車企都在強調自己百公里加速有多牛比，但其實，你百公里加速到底是3秒還是5秒，一般大眾很難體會到這種細微差別，即使是能體會到差別的車主，絕大多數時間也都是在路上堵著呢。
Similarly, all major car companies are now showing off their excellency in 100-kilometer acceleration, but in fact, whether 100-kilometer acceleration takes 3 seconds or 5 seconds, it is difficult for people to experience this nuance. Even if some car owners could experience the difference, they probably are stuck on the road most of the time.
所以5G時代解決車的舒適性，遠比百公里加速是幾秒更重要，你自己可能喜歡超車的快感，但你爸媽老婆孩子坐你的車時，你還敢享受超車快感？等著挨削吧。
Therefore, in the 5G era, solving the problem of comfort is far more critical than a few seconds improvement in100-kilometer acceleration.
You may like the thrill of overtaking other cars on the road, but do you dare to enjoy that when your parents, wife, and children are in your vehicle? You are dead meat.
而且，無論是車內屏幕做的再大，車內看電影、玩遊戲、做運動再爽，如果不能平穩駕駛，車內“第三空間”只能是“第三瞬間”，這就像你坐著過山車的時候不可能會去想著看片的。
Moreover, no matter how big the screen in the car is and how cool you feel when you are watching movies, playing games, and doing sports in the vehicle, if you can’t drive smoothly, the “third space” in the car can only be the “third moment.” Just like it’s impossible to think about watching a movie while you are riding a roller coaster.
那麼如何平穩駕駛呢？
So how to drive smoothly?
03 促進協同
正是我要講的第三點，促進協同。
That is the third point I want to talk about, promoting collaboration.
我們都知道自動駕駛是很多互聯網公司和車企要爭奪的一塊大蛋糕。但我們會看到，中美實現自動駕駛的路徑，是非常不一樣的。
We all know that lots of internet and car companies are competing for a place in the autopilot field. But we’ve also seen that the path to achieve the autopilot is very different for Chinese and US companies.
美國在自動駕駛上，沒有過多強調5G、車路協同等概念。
Autopilot companies in the US don't pay too much attention to concepts such as 5G and vehicle-road coordination.
而以谷歌為代表的美國企業的技術路線，會更依賴於單車智能，也就是說用最牛比的算法和強大的傳感器，讓每一輛車變成老司機去感知世界，達到自動駕駛水平。
The technical route of Google, as a representation of US companies, relies more on single-car intelligence, which means that using the most advanced algorithms and powerful sensors—making every car to perceive the world as an experienced driver to and then achieve autopilot.
值得一提的是，前幾天SpaceX又發射了一波衛星，推進了衛星互聯網進程，這個等我以後講SpaceX再詳細聊吧。
It is worth mentioning that SpaceX launched its seventh Starlink mission a few days ago, advancing the process of the Internet of Satellites. This will be discussed when I talk about SpaceX.
那麼問題來了，衛星這麼好用，還要地基5G幹嘛呢？確實，衛星解決了很多地面基站建設時存在的地理環境限制。
So, the question is, why do we need to build 5G infrastructure when we already have satellites available? Indeed, satellites have solved the geographical environment constraints exist in the construction of ground-based stations.
然而，且不說成本，衛星信號可能會受到大氣折射的影響，導致傳輸效果不佳。
However, even if we put the cost aside, the satellite signals may be affected by atmospheric refraction resulting in poor transmission.
因此，5G仍然在當下的通信市場上具有更高的優先級，也是當下發展V2X技術不可替代的首選。
Therefore, 5G still has a higher priority in the current telecommunication market, and it is also the irreplaceable first choice for the ongoing development of V2X technology.
這裡我要給大家丹尼百科一下V2X，Vehicle to everything。
Here I'll give a brief introduction to those of you who aren’t familiar with V2X, Vehicle to Everything.
它指的是“車與外界信息的交換”，包括了車與車（V2V）、車與基礎設施（V2I）、車與行人（V2P）、車與互聯網（V2N）的信息交換。
It refers to the "exchange of information between cars and the outside world," including information exchanges like V2V (Vehicle to Vehicle), V2I (Vehicle to Infrastructure), V2P (Vehicle to Pedestrian), V2N (Vehicle to Network).
而中國公司的自動駕駛路徑，則更依賴於5G、車路協 同帶來的基礎設施優勢。這也是中國“集中力量辦大事”的優勢。
On the other hand, the Chinese company's autopilot path relies more on infrastructure advantages brought by 5G and vehicle-road collaboration. That is also the advantage of China's "focusing on major affairs."
從各種高效的基建，到全球最早實現ETC的普及，再到我們這次控制疫情等等，都能看出中國的超強執行力。
From all kinds of efficient infrastructure construction to the earliest spread access to ETC around the world, then to the control of the epidemic, etc., we could see that China’s super execution ability.
5G的普及，不是一個企業能夠完成的，它需要整個國家隊發力。所以在這一方面，中國的自動駕駛、車聯網、物聯網都會因為5G的普及，走出一條和西方不一樣的道路。
The spread of 5G is not something that can be accomplished by one company. It requires the effort of the entire “national team”. Therefore, with the spread of 5G, China's autopilot, IoV, and IoT will all walk out a road that is different from the West.
其實任何革命性的新技術，都會經歷一個相似的走勢，就是這個Gartner技術成熟曲線圖：
In fact, any revolutionary new technology will experience a similar trend, which is demonstrated in the Gartner technology maturity curve:
各產業新技術發展趨勢期望
新技術的發展和談戀愛有點像，一個新技術剛開始，都容易被人神化，認為是最好、最棒、最顛覆性的，然後希望越大失望越大，直至你慢慢認清他的真面目，最終走向成熟。
New technology is somewhat like falling in love. At first, new technology is easy to be exaggerated and to be considered as the best and the most innovative one. Then, the greater the expectation grows, the more disappointment you feel. And gradually, you recognize its true color and eventually become mature.
在去年的調研中，Gartner把5G放到了這個曲線圖的至高點，難怪之前會聽到各種5G讚歌。之後又有越來越多人高喊“5G無用論”。
In last year's survey, Gartner puts 5G at the top of the graph. No wonder you've heard a lot of praise for 5G. After that, however, there is a growing complaint that 5G is useless.
其實吧，5G更像是一種賦能的手段。
Actually, 5G is more like a means of empowerment.
作為一項技術，它本身並不值得被大眾過度吹捧。真正應該關注的，是它所賦予的能力。
As a technology, it doesn't deserve too much hype. What really should be paid attention is the power it brings.
長線來看，它究竟能解決哪些交通上的痛點呢？成本下降？效率增高？安全提升？
In the long term, which traffic problems can it solve? Cost reduction? Efficiency enhancement? Safety improvement?
未來5G對車行業的作用不僅僅在於造一輛車的問題，更是一項系統工程，這包括道路規劃、紅綠燈等交通設施、甚至連交通法規都需要更新，而通過系統工程解決問題，這也是國家隊成員最擅長的，比如上汽集團。
In the future, 5G will play a role not only in building a car but also in system engineering, including road planning, traffic facilities like traffic lights, and even the traffic regulations update. Solving problems through system engineering is what the “national team members” excel in, such as SAIC.
如果你想要在5G時代有所斬獲，就必須做多年的技術積累，正如摩天大樓不是一天建成的，而我這種胖子也不是靠一天吃肥的。
To win something in the 5G era requires years of technology accumulation. Just as skyscrapers are not built in a day, and no one grows a couch potato like me overnight.
我在之前DannyData華為裡就提到過：春江水暖鴨先知，而“
5G冷暖to B先知”。As I mentioned in the previous DannyData episode about Huawei: The ducks know first when the water gets warm in spring, and enterprises know first when 5G works well.
最先感受到5G牛比之處的一定不是你家隔壁老王，而是大規模商業運營，比如無人駕駛的出租車，包括谷歌、特斯拉、Uber、滴滴都在重點佈局的robotaxi無人駕駛車隊。
The first one who knows the usefulness of 5G can’t be your neighborhood but the large-scale commercial operations such as unmanned taxi and the unmanned fleet, robotaxi. The later has a place in the key layout of Google, Tesla, Uber, and Didi.
而上汽集團被授予國內第一張智能網聯汽車道路測試用牌照、和華為都是汽車5G互聯技術聯盟5GAA的成員。
SAIC has been authorized the first domestic road test license of the intelligent network-connected cars. Just like Huawei, it is also a member of the 5GAA(5G Automotive Association).
還有最近發佈的Marvel R 5G電動車包括了各種L3級別自動駕駛功能，雖然我絕對不敢斷言上汽可以跑贏5G這場戰爭，但絕對是5G賽道上起跑飛快的參賽選手。
The recently released Marvel R 5G electric vehicle has a variety of L3 level autopilot functions. Although I dare not assert that SAIC can win in the 5G competition, it is a fast starter on the track.
說實話，曾經我也對國產車有過誤解，但當我自己做了越來越多研究工作之後，我認為我們應該對國產車有更多的信心，國產手機已經證明了自己可以和世界頂級品牌掰手腕的能力，希望國產車在5G的大背景下，也能和世界頂級選手摔個跤。
To be honest, I misunderstood domestic cars in the past. But after more and more researches and analyses, I think we should have more confidence in domestic cars. Domestic mobile phones have proven their competitiveness in fierce competition with top brands worldwide. I hope that domestic cars can also battle with the global top players in the 5G era.
吹了這麼久的5G， 其實5G不是萬能的，未來的6G、7G也不是，但確是任何全球互聯網相關產業的一劑催化劑。
Despite so much praise, I should admit that 5G is not a panacea, nor 6G or 7G in the future. But it is a catalyst for any global internet-related industry.
顯然，我們可以預判到5G對車聯網與自動駕駛產業的推動作用。然而，正如何同學關於5G的那期視頻裡提到的，讓我們真正期待的，5G真正能夠帶來的是一個不可預知的世界。
Obviously, we can predict the promotion effect of 5G on the IoV and the autopilot industry. However, as He Tongxue mentioned in his video about 5G, what we expect is that 5G can bring an unprecedented world.
到底車聯網能夠發展到什麼程度，到底會有什麼新興產業的催生，我們都無從知曉。我只知道，有了5G，我們大概不能再忽悠老闆或老婆說：“剛才信號不好沒聽到你電話了。”
We don’t know how the IoV will develop and what emerging industries will be created. I only know that with 5G, we probably can no longer fool our boss or spouse by saying, “I didn’t answer your phone because the signal was bad.”
儘管大家都說無論是5G通信技術的全面商用，還是V2X的落地，真正實現起來離我們還有一段距離。但是我們要清楚記得Erik在《第二次機器革命》所寫：
Many people may agree that we still have a long way to go before the full commercialization of 5G and the full realization of V2X. But just remember what Erik wrote in The Second Machine Age :
“一年是一年，那是200年前，一個月是一年，那是20年前，一天是一年，那就是現在。”
“Two hundred years ago, a year is one year; twenty years ago, one month equals one year; and now, one day equals one year.”
現在，各大車企都正在帶領我們逐步打開未來這扇大門。正如我很喜歡尼古拉斯·趙四，哦，不，尼葛洛龐帝《數字化生存》中的一句話：“預見未來最好的辦法就是把它創造出來。”
Now, major car companies are leading us to open the door to the future step by step. Just as my favorite quote from Being Digital by Nicholas Negroponte: “The best way to predict the future is to create it."
所以，今天我講了這麼多5G的已知可能的應用場景，其實應該最讓人興奮的，是那些5G時代未知的應用場景， 這也像極了愛情，真正的精彩在於你和愛人未來可能發生的美好。
Well, today I talk a lot about the known and possible 5G application scenarios, and the most exciting part should be those unknown application scenarios in the 5G era. This is just like romantic love, where the real beauty lies in the future that your lover and you create together.
就像當年3G、4G時代剛出現時，大家只知道“吃著火鍋唱著歌”，而現在是“點著美團外賣，放著嗶哩嗶哩”，正如日本著名建築師安藤忠雄曾說：“要加倍使出全部的力量往前衝，不要回頭。如此一來，你將可以看到原本看不到的世界。”
Just like at the initial stage of the 3G and 4G era, people can only singsongs while eating hot pots. But now we all order takeaways and watch Bilibili. As the famous Japanese architect, Tadao Ando, once shared: "Spare no effort to go forward, don’t look back. In this way, you will be able to see the world that you wouldn’t have seen."
而5G時代，尤其是對於Generation Z來說，請大膽放心的奔湧吧，後浪！
And the 5G era, especially to Generation Z, is like an ocean. So just sail into it!
最後，以我很欣賞的一句康奈爾大學口號作為結尾：“不要告訴我世界是怎樣的，告訴我如何創造世界。”
I’ll use a slogan of Cornell University to end this episode: “Don’t tell me what the world is like, tell me how to create it.”
我是小丹尼，談車說科技。Techs Never Die，回見。
I’m Danny. I talk about tech and cars. Techs Never Die, see you next time.
文稿/校對：小丹尼、Emma、Vivian、Xuyang
剪輯/視覺：羅兆吉、Alex、小丹尼、趙忠彥、寧新茹、呂曉彬
播講：小丹尼
翻譯：Xuyang、嘉瑤、楊墨、Grace
排版：Xuyang、李扁擔
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