Sunlight destroys virus quickly, new govt. tests find, but experts say pandemic could last through summer
新的政府測試發現，陽光可以迅速摧毀病毒，但專家表示，流感大流行可能會持續整個夏天
Preliminary results from government lab experiments show that the coronavirus does not survive long in high temperatures and high humidity, and is quickly destroyed by sunlight, providing evidence from controlled tests of what scientists believed — but had not yet proved — to be true.
政府實驗室實驗的初步結果顯示，這種冠狀病毒在高溫高溼的環境中存活時間不長，在陽光的照射下很快就會被消滅，這為科學家們相信但尚未被證實的事實提供了對照試驗的證據。
A briefing on the preliminary results, marked for official use only and obtained by Yahoo News, offers hope that summertime may offer conditions less hospitable for the virus, though experts caution it will by no means eliminate, or even necessarily decrease, new cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The results, however, do add an important piece of knowledge that the White House’s science advisers have been seeking as they scramble to respond to the spreading pandemic.
簡報的初步結果,僅供官方使用和通過雅虎新聞,提供了希望,夏天可能為病毒提供條件更不友善,但專家警告這將消除,甚至必然減少,COVID-19新病例,由冠狀病毒引起的疾病。然而，這些結果確實增加了一條重要的知識，這是白宮的科學顧問們在緊急應對流感大流行時一直在尋求的。
The study found that the risk of “transmission from surfaces outdoors is lower during daylight” and under higher temperature and humidity conditions. “Sunlight destroys the virus quickly,” reads the briefing.
研究發現，在白天和較高的溫度和溼度條件下，“戶外表面傳播的風險較低”。“陽光能迅速消滅病毒，”簡報上寫道。
While that may provide some good news about the outlook for outdoor activities, the Department of Homeland Security briefing on the results cautions that enclosed areas with low humidity, such as airplane cabins, “may require additional care to minimize risk of transmission.”
雖然這可能會對戶外活動的前景帶來一些好消息，但國土安全部(Department of Homeland Security)在結果通報會上警告說，飛機客艙等溼度較低的封閉區域“可能需要額外的注意，以將傳播風險降到最低”。
In a statement to Yahoo News, the DHS declined to answer questions about the findings and strongly cautioned against drawing any conclusions based on unpublished data.
在給雅虎新聞的一份聲明中，國土安全部拒絕回答有關調查結果的問題，並強烈警告不要根據未公佈的數據得出任何結論。
“The department is dedicated to the fight against COVID-19, and the health and safety of the American people is its top priority. As policy, the department does not comment on allegedly leaked documents,” the DHS said in a statement. “It would be irresponsible to speculate, draw conclusions, or to inadvertently try to influence the public based upon a document that has not yet been peer-reviewed or subjected to the rigorous scientific validation approach.”
國務院致力於打擊毒品犯罪，美國人民的健康和安全是它的首要任務。作為政策，國土安全部對所謂的洩密文件不予置評，”國土安全部在一份聲明中表示。“根據一份尚未經過同行評審或經過嚴格科學驗證的文件進行推測、得出結論或無意中試圖影響公眾，都是不負責任的。”
The results are contained in a briefing by the DHS science and technology directorate, which describes experiments conducted by the National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center, a lab created after the 9/11 terrorist attacks to address biological threats.
這些結果包含在國土安全部科學與技術理事會的簡報中，其中描述了國家生物防禦分析與對策中心(National Biodefense Analysis and Center)進行的實驗，該中心是9/11恐怖襲擊後建立的一個實驗室，旨在應對生物威脅。
While the DHS describes the results as preliminary, they may eventually make their way into specific recommendations. “Outdoor daytime environments are lower risk for transmission,” the briefing states.
雖然國土安全部將結果描述為初步的，但他們最終可能會提出具體的建議。簡報指出:“戶外日間環境傳播的風險較低。”
Simulated sunlight “rapidly killed the virus in aerosols,” the briefing says, while without that treatment, “no significant loss of virus was detected in 60 minutes.”
簡報說，模擬的陽光“迅速殺死了氣溶膠中的病毒”，而沒有這種處理，“在60分鐘內沒有發現明顯的病毒損失”。
The tests were performed on viral particles suspended in saliva. They were done indoors in environments meant to mimic various weather conditions.
實驗是在唾液中懸浮的病毒顆粒上進行的。他們是在模擬各種天氣條件的室內環境中完成的。
While the results of these tests have not been previously made public, Harvey Fineberg, head of the National Academies Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, broadly described plans to conduct the experiments in an April 7 letter to the White House.
美國國家科學院新發傳染病和21世紀健康威脅常設委員會主任哈維·芬伯格在4月7日致白宮的信中，對進行這些試驗的計劃作了大體描述。
In that letter, addressed to President Trump’s top science adviser Kelvin Droegemeier, Fineberg wrote that the DHS lab “is well suited for the kinds of studies they have planned, and the scope and relevance are noteworthy. In particular, they plan to create simulated infected body fluids, including saliva and lower respiratory secretions.”
在致特朗普總統首席科學顧問開爾文·德羅格米爾(Kelvin Droegemeier)的信中，芬伯格寫道，國土安全部的實驗室“非常適合他們計劃進行的研究，其範圍和相關性值得關注。”特別是，他們計劃創造模擬受感染的體液，包括唾液和下呼吸道分泌物。”
Droegemeier’s office did not respond to a request for comment on whether it has received the latest results from the DHS. The National Academies also did not respond to a request for comment.
Droegemeier辦公室沒有回應是否收到國土安全部最新調查結果的置評請求。美國國家科學院也沒有回應記者的置評請求。
While the lab results are new, scientists for many weeks have predicted, based on available data on the disease’s spread, that warmer, wetter climates would be less hospitable to the spread of the coronavirus. An early analysis by scientists observed that the virus was spreading more slowly in countries with warmer climates.
雖然實驗室的結果是新的，但科學家們根據現有的疾病傳播數據已經預測了好幾個星期，更溫暖、更溼潤的氣候對冠狀病毒的傳播不那麼友好。科學家的早期分析發現，這種病毒在氣候較溫暖的國家傳播速度較慢。
“We are not saying that at higher temperatures, the virus will suddenly go away and everything would be fine and you are going out,” Qasim Bukhari, a computational scientist at MIT and a co-author of the analysis, told Yahoo News in an interview. “No, we are not saying it. We are just seeing that there is a temperature- and humidity-related dependency, but I think many people now have started to realize this.”
“我們並不是說，在更高的溫度下，病毒會突然消失，一切都會好起來，然後你就可以離開了，”麻省理工學院(MIT)的計算科學家、該分析報告的合著者卡西姆布哈里(Qasim Bukhari)在接受雅虎新聞(Yahoo News)採訪時表示。“不，我們不說。我們只是看到了與溫度和溼度相關的依賴性，但我認為許多人現在已經開始意識到這一點。”
Bukhari said that since he and his colleagues published that analysis, the numbers on the coronavirus’s spread continue to support their contention. “They are doing a lot of tests now in India. Also, when you look at the numbers in Pakistan it’s the same. There are more than 5,000 cases in Pakistan right now,” he said. “But the increase is not as rapid as you see in other countries.”
布哈里說，自從他和他的同事發表了那份分析報告以來，有關冠狀病毒傳播的數字繼續支持他們的論點。“他們現在在印度做很多測試。而且，當你看巴基斯坦的數字時，也是一樣的。目前巴基斯坦有5000多個病例。“但增長速度沒有你在其他國家看到的那麼快。”
Women in Islamabad, Pakistan, wait to receive cash from a government program for families in need. (Anjum Naveed/AP)
巴基斯坦首都伊斯蘭堡的婦女在等待政府為有需要的家庭提供的現金援助。(Anjum Naveed /美聯社)
The question of the effects of sunlight and heat on the coronavirus has been particularly fraught, because there has been a tendency to misinterpret the relationship between good weather and disease spread. Early on, some politicians tried to encourage people to go outside, including to beaches, arguing that sunlight would kill the virus. The problem, however, is that without widespread immunity, people can still transmit the coronavirus to others, even in warm weather.
陽光和高溫對冠狀病毒影響的問題尤其令人擔憂，因為人們往往誤解好天氣和疾病傳播之間的關係。早些時候，一些政客試圖鼓勵人們外出，包括去海灘，他們認為陽光會殺死病毒。然而，問題是，如果沒有廣泛的免疫，人們仍然可以將冠狀病毒傳播給他人，即使是在溫暖的天氣。
The real question now, Bukhari said, is whether enough people have already been infected that the summer temperatures won’t prevent continued transmission.
布哈里說，現在真正的問題是，是否已經有足夠多的人受到感染，夏季的氣溫不會阻止病毒的繼續傳播。
“So let’s say 50 percent of the population is already infected, and then those temperatures arrive and then those humidity levels arrive, then what difference can those temperatures and humidity levels be? Probably none. That’s the thing.”
“假設50%的人口已經被感染，然後這些溫度到達，然後這些溼度水平到達，然後這些溫度和溼度水平會有什麼不同?可能沒有。這就是。”
While the new lab results are important, the science behind how sunlight kills the virus is fairly well established, says Arthur Anderson, former director of the Office of Human Use and Ethics at the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases at Fort Detrick, Md.
位於馬里蘭州德特里克堡的美國陸軍傳染病醫學研究所(United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases)人類使用與倫理辦公室(Office of Human Use and Ethics)前主任阿瑟·安德森(Arthur Anderson)表示，儘管新的實驗室結果很重要，但陽光殺死病毒的原理已經相當成熟。
“[Ultraviolet] light breaks DNA into fragments. If the virus is floating around in the air and there’s bright sunlight, the UV component in sunlight will break the DNA or the RNA into pieces,” he told Yahoo News.
“(紫外線)把DNA分解成碎片。如果病毒漂浮在空氣中，有明亮的陽光，陽光中的紫外線成分會將DNA或RNA分解成碎片，”他告訴雅虎新聞。
Infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has become the leading face of the White House response, has provided cautious statements about what the summer months might mean for the coronavirus, saying recently, “It’s almost certainly going to go down a bit.” He has stopped far short, however, of saying that good weather alone would have an impact.
傳染病專家Anthony Fauci博士已成為白宮應對措施的主要負責人，他對夏季幾個月對冠狀病毒可能意味著什麼發表了謹慎的聲明，最近他說，“幾乎可以肯定會有所下降。”不過，他並沒有說好天氣就能產生影響。
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. (Alex Brandon/AP)
美國國家過敏和傳染病研究所主任安東尼·福奇博士說。(亞歷克斯·布蘭登/美聯社)
Yet the lab results may ultimately provide at least some basis for optimism.
然而，實驗室的結果最終可能至少會提供一些樂觀的基礎。
“Does this give a little more hope about the virus potentially decreasing?” said Dr. Kavita Patel, a Yahoo medical contributor and nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Yes. I would say even Dr. Fauci has alluded to that.”
“這是否給了人們一點希望，病毒可能會減少?”雅虎醫學撰稿人、布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)非常駐研究員卡維塔·帕特爾(Kavita Patel)博士說。“是的。我想說，就連福奇博士也提到了這一點。”
Colds and flus don’t disappear in the summer, even if they are less common, Patel noted. “We do have cases of the flu in the summer,” she said. “That’s why all of us in medicine are being a little more guarded.”
帕特爾指出，感冒和流感在夏季並不會消失，即使它們不那麼常見。“我們在夏天確實有流感病例，”她說。“這就是為什麼我們所有的醫學界人士都有點謹慎的原因。”
The lab’s work was done in a controlled environment, according to the DHS briefing, and tested how long the coronavirus survives on stainless steel in a droplet of saliva from a cough or sneeze under conditions related to temperature, humidity and sunlight. The lab is now doing additional testing, such as experimenting with low-tech techniques for sterilization of protective equipment, which would include using rice cookers, clothes steamers and electric pressure cookers.
根據美國國土安全部的簡報，實驗室的工作是在受控的環境下完成的，並測試了在與溫度、溼度和陽光相關的條件下，冠狀病毒在咳嗽或打噴嚏時唾液滴中的不鏽鋼上能存活多久。該實驗室目前正在進行額外的測試，比如對防護設備的消毒進行低技術含量的實驗，其中包括使用電飯鍋、衣物蒸鍋和電壓力鍋。
The National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center, which conducted the experiments, has traditionally kept a low profile because of its classified work on biological warfare defense and bioterrorism. Fineberg, in his letter to the White House, did not go into detail on the planned experiments, noting that the lab shares its findings with the interagency task force on the coronavirus.
進行這些實驗的國家生物防禦分析與對策中心，由於其在生物戰爭防禦和生物恐怖主義方面的機密工作，傳統上一直保持低調。芬伯格在給白宮的信中沒有詳細說明計劃中的實驗，他指出，實驗室與有關冠狀病毒的跨部門工作組分享了他們的發現。
Anderson, the former Fort Detrick scientist, said it’s unclear why the information would be marked for official use only. “I have to say I don’t know. I think if they have something that is critically important, it would get published, but it would not be available in the acute time frame of the emergency,” he said.
安德森曾是德特里克堡的科學家，他說，目前還不清楚為什麼這些信息會被標記為只供官方使用。“我得說我不知道。我認為，如果他們有非常重要的東西，就會發表，但是在緊急情況的緊急時間範圍內是無法得到的。”
The typical route for conveying urgent information, he said, would be to give the information to public health agencies and government agencies, and let them report the findings.
他說，傳遞緊急信息的典型途徑是將信息提供給公共衛生機構和政府機構，並讓它們報告調查結果。
It is unclear for now whether the center intends to publish in a peer-reviewed journal or choose some other route for making its results known. Patel said she could understand government concerns about releasing preliminary results, but in general she leans toward openness.
目前還不清楚該中心是打算在同行評審的期刊上發表論文，還是選擇其他途徑公佈研究結果。帕特爾說，她可以理解政府對公佈初步結果的擔憂，但總的來說，她傾向於公開。
“As a clinical doctor, we want to learn as fast as possible anything that works clinically. You want to be able in the first line to say: This is preliminary, with caveats. But why hold back the information?” she said.
“作為一名臨床醫生，我們希望儘可能快地學習任何臨床有效的東西。你要能夠在第一行說:這是初步的，有警告。但為什麼要隱瞞信息呢?”她說。
It may be that the government wants to control how the message is released, she suggested. “I would say in a global pandemic, that’s less of a priority.”
她認為，政府可能想要控制消息的發佈方式。“我想說，在全球大流行的情況下，這不是重點。”
