译者 王为
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Powered by Stimulus & Rent/Mortgage Payments “Not Made,” US Trade Deficit Hits Record Worst Terrible Level Ever
by Wolf Richter
Not a sign of strength, but of big economic distortions.
但这并不意味着美国经济表现强劲，而是信号失真
Consumers are spending their stimulus money and their extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits, and now the extra $300 a week in unemployment benefits, and their fraudulently obtained unemployment benefits. And they’re also spending the money they’re not paying to landlords because they’ve stopped making rent payments due to the eviction ban. And they’re spending the money they’re not paying to mortgage lenders because their mortgages are now in forbearance and they don’t have to make mortgage payments. And they’re spending on other stuff the money they’re not spending on airline tickets and restaurants and hotels. In other words, consumers are spending, but not always where they used to, and retail sales have hit a record in July and August, and much of this retailed merchandise was imported.
美国消费者正在大手大脚地花钱，这些钱包括政府给的救济资金以及疫情期间每周额外给与的600美元失业补助，每周额外补助的失业金如今已降至300美元，外加通过欺诈手段骗来的失业救济。此外，由于美国政府下令禁止业主将无法及时支付租金的租房者扫地出门，因此消费者把省下来的租金也用于购物了。这还没完呢，本应定期支付的按揭贷款本息也不用急着还了，这也有宽限期了，省下来的钱呢？也被花掉了！还有呐，因疫情关系原本应被用于购买机票、外出用餐以及宾馆住宿的钱也被花在买东西上了。也就是说，美国消费者还在花钱，但花钱的去处与以往不一样了，7、8两个月美国的零售额创下历史新高，而大部分零售商品是进口的。
Imports of goods in August fell 4.3% year-over-year, to $201 billion (seasonally adjusted) as imports of consumer goods jumped, while imports of capital goods and industrial supplies – which is what companies buy – fell, according to the Commerce Department this morning.
根据美国商务部昨天早上公布的数据，8月份美国货物进口额环比去年同期下降了4.3%至2010亿美元，此类数据均经过季节调整，其中消费品的进口大幅跳升，而买家一般为美国企业的资本货物和工业制成品的进口则出现下降。
But exports of goods, which would really help the US economy – they plunged 13.3% year-over-year, to $118 billion, with nearly all major categories plunging by the double digits. And the trade deficit (exports minus imports) worsened by 13% to an all-time record worst terrible horrible $82.9 billion:
与此同时，真正有利于美国经济的货物出口的金额为1180亿美元，环比去年同期下降了13.3%，几乎所有大类商品的出口额均以两位数的百分比下跌，贸易逆差（即出口额减去进口额的差值）较前期增加了13%，达到创记录的829亿美元，见下图。
Imports of consumer goods, the largest category, rose by 2.4% in August compared to August last year, to $58 billion – that’s the power of stimulus money. Imports of food, feeds, and beverages rose 6.8%, to $13 billion.
在全部进口货物中金额排名第一的是消费品，拜经济刺激所赐，今年8月份的消费品进口与去年8月份相比增加了2.4%至580亿美元，饮料食品的进口增加了6.8%至130亿美元。
But imports of industrial supplies fell 11.3% compared to August last year, to $37.9 billion; imports of capital goods fell 4.1% to $55 billion. Imports of other goods fell 2.2% to $10 billion. And imports of the wide category that includes cars, trucks of all kinds, buses, parts, auto bodies, chassis, tires, engines, etc. fell 12% year-over-year to $28 billion.
但工业制成品的进口同比去年8月份下跌了11.3%至379亿美元，资本货物的进口下跌4.1%至550亿美元，其他商品的进口下跌了2.2%至100亿美元，包括小汽车、各种类型的卡车、巴士、汽车零配件、车体部件、车辆底盘、轮胎、引擎等在内的运输机械类商品的进口同比下跌了12%至280亿美元。
Exports in August fell 13.3% year-over-year. The only single-digit decliner was exports of food, feeds, and beverages -3.3% ($11 billion). Exports of all other major categories fell by the double-digits: industrial goods -11% ($39 billion); capital goods -18% ($36 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, etc. -14% ($12 billion); consumer goods -11% ($15 billion); other goods -18% ($5 billion).
8月份的出口同比下跌了13.3%，只有饮料食品类商品的出口跌幅没有超过10%，出口额为110亿美元，跌幅为3.3%。其他主要大类货物的出口额均以两位数的百分比下跌：工业制成品的出口下跌11%至390亿美元；资本货物的出口下跌18%至360亿美元；汽车及汽车部品的出口下跌14%至120亿美元；消费品的出口下跌11%至150亿美元；其他商品的出口下跌18%至50亿美元。
This is the disconnect, after three decades of trade policies that favored only Corporate America and its relentless focus on globalization, lower costs, and stock prices, instead of the US economy and labor. Imports in red, exports in black:
这一现象有点有悖常理，只有美国大企业才是过去三十年利好全球化的贸易政策的受益者，而大企业持续关注的只是全球化布局、削减成本以及股价的涨跌，而不是对美国的实体经济以及就业是否有利。下图中，红线为美国的进口额，黑线为出口额：
A merchandise trade deficit is a negative for the economy. And it’s a negative for the GDP calculations. It lowers GDP. The stimulus money – the portion that went overseas – stimulated the economies overseas, and these countries, steeped in their economic troubles, countered by cutting back in purchases from the US.
货物贸易方面的逆差对美国经济是不利的，对GDP来说也不是啥好消息，逆差会降低GDP的总量。美国政府在经济刺激方面花的钱有一部分被花到海外了，刺激的是外国的经济，而这些受益国因在经济方面身陷困境，反过来削减了从美国的进口。
Many countries want to “export themselves out of trouble,” and that’s working for countries that can pull it off.
很多国家想“把自己国家的困境转嫁出去”，而美国进口消费品大增对这些国家可谓“雪中送炭”。
But the US – with the skewed its skewed incentives and the totally globalized retail giants such as Walmart and Amazon and globalized Corporate America that doesn’t care about anything other than its stock price and low costs – wants to “import itself out of trouble.”
但在经济刺激的道路上越走越歪的美国以及完全全球化的美国企业巨头，如沃尔玛、亚马逊之类一门心思只惦记自家股价的高低以及哪便宜就从哪买的跨国企业，所想要做的是“用越来越多的进口解决自己的问题”。
And that, by definition, never works in boosting the economy, though you can boost stock prices with it. Rising imports and a record worst terrible trade deficit are not signs of strength, but of big economic distortions.
尽管这样做可以刺激股价上涨，但从理论上讲是不可能支撑实体经济的。进口增加以及贸易赤字创纪录并不意味着经济强劲，而是说明美国经济内部出大问题了。
