本文作者是OMFIF經濟學家本·魯濱遜，OMFIF是一家總部位於倫敦的全球金融智庫，原文於2017年9月4日發表在OMFIF Commentary。
作者提出經過多年的低增長之後，世界貿易額將在2017年第三季度回升，然而政策的不確定性和結構性變化會對此產生威脅。世界上主要的經濟體需要重新關注政策, 以促進更高的貿易增長，否則世界將喪失幾十年的貿易增長機會。
中文譯文如下：
未來數十年的貿易機會面臨風險
政策不確定性和結構性變化威脅前景
本·魯濱遜
翻譯：靳佳為
審校：陸可凡
根據世界貿易組織 (WTO) 的最新數據, 經過多年的低增長, 世界貿易額正在回升, 預計在2017年第三季度將會繼續增加。空運和集裝箱港口的數量已分別見同比增長約10% 和 7%，反映了總需求量的上升勢頭。電子元器件和農業原材料貿易經過一段時間低於總體增長趨勢後開始擴張, 這表明在下游工業中利用這些投入創造更復雜最終產品的活動在增強。
世貿組織預測的增長令人鼓舞, 但世界經濟中的政策不確定性和結構變化阻礙了貿易前景。面臨貿易放緩問題的國家需要通過將政策重點改為為發展有競爭力的服務行業和吸引外國直接投資創造有利的國內環境，來適應這個問題。這包括加強知識產權保護以及改革教育和技能培訓。國際服務貿易框架也需要前所未有的現代化, 以促進跨境流動。
去年是15年來的第一次--也是自1982年以來的第二次—世界貿易增長（1.3%）低於世界 GDP增長（2.3%）。trade-to-GDP指數相比於在二十世紀九十年代和二十一世紀第一個十年中期之間平均超過2:1的水平明顯下降到0.6：1。
自2008金融危機以來, 世界貿易的增長速度與世界產量相同。貿易的低增長影響到總體需求、經濟發展、出口價格、外匯儲備、政府預算和就業等問題。
1:1 的比率部分是週期性因素的結果。這些因素包括危機後復甦緩慢和投資支出大幅下降, 這是進口需求中最貿易密集型的組成部分。
另一個重要原因是中國造成的結構性變化。從鋼鐵到半導體, 中國的生產能力迅速提高。中國將更多的價值鏈引入國內經濟, 並將生產進一步轉移到內陸省份, 而不是像以前一樣簡單地組裝其他地方製造的零部件。
因此, 中國目前出口的貨物中有較高比例的國內增值, 這影響了中國從其他國家進口再作為生產過程的一部分出口的中間產品的數量。20世紀90年代發展起來的供應鏈帶動了中間產品貿易的擴大，這是中國早期生產總值和貿易擴張的一個關鍵原因。
政治家們正在努力制定有效的措施來應對這些挑戰。目前, 許多主要經濟體對貿易保護和經濟民族主義的強調並未能解決這些轉變的最重要因素。
自二十世紀七十年代以來, 服務行業佔全球 GDP比重從53%增長到超過70%, 而且仍在上升。在發達經濟體中, 服務行業的貢獻佔國內生產總值的85%。與此同時, 製造業在全球 GDP 中所佔的比重已從27% 下降到 16%, 而且仍在下降。
儘管發生了這些變化, 但在過去幾十年中, 全球貿易中服務貿易的數量一直穩定在20% 至25% 之間。儘管在全球GDP中所佔份額有所下降，製造業和商品貿易仍然佔世界貿易總額的70% 左右。其結果是, GDP 增長與貿易擴張之間的脫節越來越大。
與商品貿易不同, 服務業尚未在多邊層面上看到成功的大型自由貿易協定, 部分原因是服務所依賴的深層次的邊境問題。此外, 有些服務本質上是不可流通的, 或者需要面對面的互動。還有些服務是 "嵌入" 在製成品出口, 並沒有被傳統的貿易統計數據計入。
至關重要的是, 許多服務通過外國直接投資而直接流入其他國家, 從而在這些情況下充當貿易的替代品。根據聯合國的統計數據, 全球外國直接投資的60% 以上來自服務業, 境外機構的服務貿易價值與跨境服務貿易的價值的比值超過了3：1。
所有這些因素都表明, 即使全球增長開始加速, 全球 trade-to-GDP 比率也不可能達到以前的高點。主要經濟體需要重新關注政策, 以促進更高的貿易增長。如果他們不這樣做, 世界將喪失幾十年的貿易增長機會。
英文原文如下：
Decades of Trade Opportunities at Risk
Policy uncertainty and structural changes threaten prospects
Ben RobinsonAfter years of low growth, world trade volumes are recovering and expected to increase throughout the third quarter of 2017, according to latest data from the World Trade Organisation. Air freight and container port volumes, good measures of overall demand, have seen year-on-year growth of around 10% and 7%, respectively. Trade in electronic components and agricultural raw materials is expanding after a period of below-trend growth, indicating strengthening activity in downstream industries that use these inputs to create more complex final products.
The increase in the WTO forecast is encouraging, but policy uncertainty and structural changes in the world economy hamper trade prospects. Countries facing problems from the trade slowdown need to adapt by changing their policy focus towards creating supportive domestic environments for developing competitive service industries and attracting foreign direct investment. This includes strengthening intellectual property protection and reforming education and skills training. The international framework for services trade, too, requires unprecedented modernisation to facilitate cross-border flows.
Last year was the first time in 15 years – and only the second time since 1982 – that trade grew below world GDP, at 1.3% against global output of 2.3%. That trade-to-GDP ratio of 0.6:1 is a marked reduction from the more than 2:1 averaged between the 1990s and mid-2000s.
Since the 2008 financial crisis world trade has grown at the same pace as world output. Low trade growth impacts overall demand, economic development, export prices, foreign reserves, government budgets and employment, among other issues.
The 1:1 ratio is partly the result of cyclical factors. These include the slow post-crisis recovery and a large fall in investment spending, which is the most trade-intensive component of import demand.
Another significant cause is structural change resulting from China. It has rapidly increased its productive capacity in everything from steel to semiconductors. Rather than simply assemble components made elsewhere, as in the past, China is drawing more of the value chain into its domestic economy and shifting production further into its interior provinces.
As a result, China is exporting goods with a higher portion of domestic value-added, which is impacting the amount of intermediate goods it imports from elsewhere and then re-exports as part of the production process. The expansion of trade in such intermediates as supply chains developed during the 1990s was a key cause of the earlier trade-GDP expansion.
Politicians are struggling to devise effective measures to deal with these challenges. The current focus on trade protection and economic nationalism in many leading economies fails to address the most important causes for these shifts.
Since the 1970s services have grown to over 70% of global GDP from 53%, and are still rising. In developed economies services contribute up to 85% of GDP. The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, has fallen as a share of global GDP to 16% from around 27%, and is still declining.
Despite these shifts, the amount of services in global trade has remained stable over the last few decades, at between 20%-25%. Manufacturing and goods trade still accounts for around 70% of total trade, despite contributing a declining share of global GDP. The result is a growing disconnect between GDP growth and trade expansion.
Unlike goods trade, services have yet to see a successful large liberalisation agreement at the multilateral level, in part because of the deep behind-the-border issues that services depend on. Moreover, some services are inherently non-tradable or require face-to-face interactions. Others are 'embedded' in manufactured exports and are not captured by traditional trade statistics.
Crucially, many services are delivered directly into other countries by establishing a presence through foreign direct investment, which acts as a substitute for trade in these cases. Over 60% of the global stock of FDI is in services, according to statistics from the United Nations, with the value of foreign affiliate trade in services outweighing the value of cross-border service trade by more than 3:1.
All these factors suggest the global trade-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to reach previous highs, even if global growth starts to accelerate. Leading economies need to refocus on polices to facilitate higher trade growth. If they do not, the world faces decades of lost opportunities.
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