譯者 王為
文中黑字部分為原文，藍字部分為譯文，紅字部分為譯者註釋或補充說明
Without the Outliers, Inflation Is Running Hot. Fed Has Started Mentioning these Measures in the Minutes
by Wolf Richter
Cleveland Fed’s Underlying Inflation Measure Hits 3.0%, Hottest in the Data.
克利夫蘭聯儲銀行編制的通脹指標增速為3.0%，為各類通脹增速指標中的最高值
“Soft inflation?” The inflation measure by the Cleveland Fed — the “Median CPI,” which is based on Consumer Price Index data but removes the outliers in the data to reveal underlying inflation trends — jumped 3.0% for September, the highest in the data series going back to the Financial Crisis, when this measure was launched.
“美國當前的通脹增速真的不高嗎？”， 克利夫蘭聯儲銀行編制的通脹指標——“消費物價指數漲幅的中位值”9月份增速跳升至3.0%，創下該指標於2008年金融危機期間首次發佈以來的最高紀錄，該指標的編制是基於消費物價指數，但是不含變動幅度通常較大、容易產生異常影響的物價因素，這樣就可以更準確地反應美國通脹率的基本變動情況。
By comparison, “core CPI,” which removes food and energy prices, hit 2.4% in August and September, the highest since September 2008:
與該指標形成鮮明對比的是“消費物價指數漲幅的核心值”，即刨除了能源和食品價格變動因素的消費物價增速在8月份和9月份均為2.4%，也是自2008年9月以來的最高值：
The Fed is mentioning these kinds of alternative inflation measures in the minutes of the FOMC meetings – voiced by “some participants” – to show that underlying trends in inflation are pointing upward, except for a few outliers, such as the re-collapse of oil prices and a few other items that skew the overall results, and to show that the “soft inflation readings during the earlier period were transitory.”
在最新發布的9月份聯儲例會會議紀要中，曾經應“某些與會委員的要求”提到過這些聯儲重點觀察範圍之外的通脹指標，這些通脹指標顯示美國通脹增速正在趨勢性地加速上行，只有幾個異常物價因素是個例外，比如近期再次大幅下挫的油價以及其他幾個與整體物價走勢背道而馳的物價因素，還提到“在趨勢的早期階段表現出來的通脹增速疲軟狀態是臨時性的”。
The oil bust that started in mid-2014 did a job on overall inflation data. The price of oil plunged by over 70%. Crude oil is not only refined into transportation and heating fuels; it’s also used as feedstock for the chemical industry. And that worked itself into the broader pricing data. In October last year, oil prices had recovered partially, with WTI trading in the range of $75 a barrel. But then oil prices collapsed again, and are now down 28% from a year ago.
2014年中開始大跌的油價對美國整體的通脹走勢產生了影響，當時油價最多時下跌了超過70%。原油不僅會被加工成運輸燃料和取暖用油，而且還可以作為化學工業的原材料，這就導致油價的變動會體現在更廣泛的物價變動因素中。去年十月份西德克薩斯輕質原油的油價曾一度出現反彈至75美元附近，但隨後再次遭遇暴跌，當前的油價與一年前相比下跌了28%。
Oil does this from time to time, as do agricultural commodities, and that is why inflation measures are offered in at least two versions: “All items” and “without food and energy.” The all-items CPI in September rose a tame 1.7% from a year ago. But the CPI without food and energy (“core CPI,” the blue line in the chart above) jumped 2.4% — the fastest rate since September 2008.
油價經常發生這樣比較大的波動，農產品的價格也是如此，這就是為啥通脹指標會被分成至少兩大類：一類是“包含所有物價因素的通脹指標”，另一類是“不含食品和能源物價因素的通脹增速”，9月份的全物價通脹增速與去年同期相比溫和上漲了1.7%，但是“不含食品和能源物價因素的通脹增速”，即上圖中藍線表示的“消費物價指數漲幅的核心值”的同比增速達到2.4%，為2008年9月以來的最高紀錄。
Energy and agricultural commodities are not the only items that skew overall inflation readings. There are other items as well that – for reasons unrelated to inflation – more or less briefly spike or collapse, before reverting toward the mean. The moves are related to short-term market manias, supply crunches, supply gluts, sudden price wars, and other factors that are unrelated to the purchasing power of the dollar (which is what consumer price inflation measures).
食品和能源的價格不是導致整體通脹指標出現異常表現的唯一因素，其他一些價格因素也會扭曲整體通脹指標的走勢，變動原因雖然與整體通脹走勢無關，但在最終迴歸正常的變動趨勢之前或多或少地會出現某種程度地快速上漲或快速下跌，與物價的異常波動有關的因素有市場的短期混亂、供求失衡、驟然爆發的價格戰以及其他與美元購買力無關的因素，而美元的購買力是消費物價指數統計的基礎。
After the turmoil of the Financial Crisis, the Cleveland Fed launched the “Median CPI” in the chart above to show underlying trends of inflation in consumer prices and to predict inflation trends over the medium time horizon.
在2008年金融危機爆發後，克利夫蘭聯儲銀行發佈了新編制的通脹指標——“消費物價指數漲幅的中位值”，即上圖中的紅線，該指標反應的是美國消費物價的基本走勢，並可被用於預測通脹的中期變動趨勢。
The Median CPI tracks the mid-point (median) of the 45 CPI components, with a cumulative importance of near 50%:
“消費物價指數漲幅的中位值”跟蹤的是消費物價指數構成中45種商品的價格波幅的中位數，其對整個指數的波動的影響程度基本上處於50%這個位置上，在下表中：
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Above it are the components with the biggest price declines and the lowest price gains that combined weigh about 50% in the index.
高於“消費物價指數漲幅的中位值”的是跌幅最大及漲幅最低的物價因素，在指數中的佔比為50%左右；
Below it are the components with the biggest price gains, weighing the remaining 50%.
低於“消費物價指數漲幅的中位值”的是漲幅最大的物價因素，在指數中的佔比保持在50%。
The line in between marks the midpoint of CPI, hence the “Median CPI.” This line in the middle came in at 3.0% annualized rate in September.
表中用加粗的線表示的是全部45種商品波幅中位於中間位置上的價格波動值，這就是“消費物價指數漲幅的中位值”， 9月份45個物價年化波幅的中位數是3.0%。
The table (via the Cleveland Fed) shows the 45 CPI components for September 2019, from the components with the largest price declines (at the top, motor fuel: -25.1%) to the components with the largest price gains (at the bottom, lodging away from home: +28.1%). The mid-point (the point closest to a cumulative weight of 50) is the “median CPI,” and is marked in bold (if your smartphone clips one of the four columns, hold it in landscape position):
下表顯示的是構成消費物價指數的45種商品的價格在2019年9月份的波幅，跌幅最大的是車用燃料油-25.1%的油價跌幅，離家在外住宿費用28.1%的漲幅最高。波幅的中位數也就是在整個物價指數中的變動權重值最接近50%的物價波幅就是“消費物價指數漲幅的中位值”，在途中用加重的黑線表示。
<table><tbody>As you can see, some prices surge and other prices plunge, and many prices move up and down in smaller increments. Part of those moves are due to temporary factors. CPI is a weighted average of these moves and is skewed by outliers. Over the long term, the moves by these outliers wash out as they revert, but over the median term, they distort CPI.
可以看到，有些商品的價格在大漲，有些商品的價格在大跌，還有很多商品的價格漲跌幅度不大。價格波幅中有一部分是受臨時性因素的影響，消費物價指數是對各類商品價格的波幅加權平均計算後的結果，但其中某些商品異常的價格波動會導致計算的結果被扭曲。從長期來看，這些異常的價格波動會被商品價格反方向的異常波動而抵消，但從中期來看，異常的價格波動會扭曲消費物價指數的表現。
That’s the reason why CPI is so volatile though the actual loss of the purchasing power of the dollar over time is on a fairly steady trend.
這就是雖然隨著時間的演變美元的購買力總體表現仍相當穩定，但美國的消費物價指數卻如此劇烈波動的原因。
The Cleveland Fed attempts to show the loss of the purchasing power of the dollar over the medium term, not influenced by the outliers. And based on this measure, the inflation trend is heating up. And “some participants” at the FOMC have started to point this out.
克利夫蘭聯儲銀行試圖揭示出，在不考慮物價異常波動因素的前提下，美元購買力在未來中期的損失程度。根據該行編制的“消費物價指數漲幅的中位值”，美國的物價水平正在加速上漲，而聯儲中的“某些與會委員”已經開始注意到這一點了。
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