WORLD PEACE FORUM, BEIJING, 9 JULY 2019

STABILISING THE WORLD ORDER: COMMON RESPONSIBILITIES, JOINT MANAGEMENT AND SHARED BENEFITS

Moderate Voices for a Shared World and Future

(Panel on Regional Security)

Thank you for inviting me to speak at the World Peace Forum. My topic will be on building a “Moderate Voice” for a shared world and future. I chose this topic because there is rising discord and distrust around the world, it is timely to exchange views on how we can work together for peace, prosperity and a stable world order.

2. Asia’s security challenges are well-known. They have contributed to a “global political warming”. But the US-China strategic rivalry in particular threatens to change the geopolitical climate. It is imperative that all countries, leaders and people help secure a peaceful and prosperous shared world and future.

3. I share my views from the perspective of a very small country with broad, deep and long-standing relationships with both the US and China. As a small country without any natural resources, trade is very important for us. We need an open world. A peaceful world is important for the survival of a small country. Singapore protects our national interests on the basis of principles and a rules-based multilateral global order, and by building friendships and adding value to the world. We have to build friendships, but more importantly, add value to others, or else we will be irrelevant.

A Trust Deficit

4. This year’s World Peace Forum is held against a backdrop of a strategic trust deficit between the US and China. We are at risk of being shackled by history, blinded by suspicions, misled by misconceptions and destroyed by zero-sum superpower rivalry.

5. The US has openly labelled China as a strategic competitor and rival, and a revisionist power. It has introduced measures to protect any perceived threats to its national security. The US has also accused China of taking advantage of the openness of the American economy by denying American companies and exports to China equal access to the Chinese market. American companies have complained about forced technology transfers and an unequal playing field between foreign and Chinese companies in China. The US government has further accused China of commercial espionage. China has refuted these allegations by pointing out the structural causes of the US’ trade deficit with China. China has also asserted that her technological advancements resulted from its own hard work as well as from partnerships between Chinese and foreign companies. Given current perceptions by both sides, it is critical to rebuild trust.

6. I am glad that President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump had a good meeting during the recent G20 Leaders Summit in Osaka. This was an important step to signal the intention at the highest level to continue talks, which will allow working-level discussions to continue more productively. More importantly, the resumption of dialogue has, at least for now, stopped the downward spiral and tit-for-tat actions in US-China relations. However, the process of building trust will take time to permeate down to the rest of the government, as well as to society.

7. When there is a trust deficit between the two largest economies in the world, how should the rest of the world react? I am reminded of the African proverb: When elephants fight, it is the grass beneath them that suffers, meaning that innocent parties get hurt in conflicts between the powerful.

8. There is also a Chinese saying – “靜觀其變”. Smaller countries could choose to watch passively from the sidelines, waiting to see how the situation unfolds, before deciding on their next moves.

9. Both scenarios are not ideal.

10. Smaller countries, too, are part of this world. They can, and should, play an independent and positive role in shaping the international order. They should engage the global powers to understand their geopolitical ambitions, temperament, power and reliability as friends. Based on this understanding, they can convey their concerns, as well as collectively spell out the shared world and future they want – a safe, secure, peaceful environment where all countries, big and small, can compete and cooperate on a consensus-driven, rules-based, multilateral system.

11. Let me share how we build trust in ASEAN. We are a diverse group of nations of different sizes, ethnic groups, religions, languages and political systems. Some members used to distrust one another and had fought wars. Differences still exist.

12. That said, a key feature of the ASEAN model is decision-making through consensus. Though it takes time, building consensus is necessary to manage the immense diversity within ASEAN and marry long-term regional as well as national interests.

13. Therefore, over the past 52 years, we have been able to progressively overcome our own internal differences to work together for better lives for our people. We now share a common vision of a peaceful and prosperous ASEAN Community.

14. The ASEAN model is one of trust-building through dialogue. I am sure a similar and regular tête-à-tête between leaders of our Asia-Pacific region can yield results. The one-on-one retreats between Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Xi were initiated to help build trust. This is a good move. They spend time together to know each other better, and what each other’s problems, challenges and goals for his country are.

How should other countries respond?

15. When enough countries stand together, their voices can be as loud, if not louder, than the trumpet of elephants. I call this combined voice the “Voice of Moderation”.

16. This “Voice of Moderation” is not a bloc or new grouping, but simply the voice of concerned countries, leaders, institutions, media, business and people who want to avert a catastrophic clash between the US and China. It is a voice for strategic rationality, peace and stability, growth and prosperity, and an interdependent, open, inclusive, rules-based multilateral order. Only by speaking in unison, will the global powers take heed of us.

17. ASEAN can be the central platform for countries in the region to speak in one voice on issues of common concern and amplify the regional “Voice of Moderation”.

18. We can do more than just speak up. Trade agreements like The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership are excellent examples of what countries can achieve by translating shared values into action.

Future Standing of the US and China

19. In addition to building trust and working together for a shared future, I would like to reflect on the future global standing of the US and China if present trends continue.

US

20. Domestic developments in the US have reshaped how American political leaders view the rest of the world. A growing number of American politicians – both Republicans and Democrats – now blame their country’s problems on globalisation.

21. The US perspective of the world has changed. The US once took it as a matter of course that it should have a global security footprint to protect its international interests. However, it is becoming more difficult for US politicians to explain to their constituents why other countries seem to be growing at the US’ expense when large segments of the population are missing out on the benefits of globalisation. The US would like to see allies and partners contribute more to burden-sharing.

22. I can understand the struggle to reconcile these differences. In fact, all leaders should put their national interests first. However, I would be concerned if the US cedes its position of leadership in the world by defining its national interests too narrowly. Those of us who are friends of America should remind the US that the multilateral institutions and global rules-based order that it had a significant role in creating has been the bedrock of unprecedented global peace and prosperity for the last seventy years. Yes, times are changing, and old rules need updating. But for any system to work, the US and China need to work together with other countries to update the rules, and not up-end the system. The interests of other countries, big and small, must also be taken into account.

23. When it comes to China, I speak candidly as an old friend who has visited China many times and has met its leaders, from Deng Xiaoping to President Xi Jinping, and from Premier Li Peng to Li Keqiang. In fact, I first came to China in 1971. Singapore has been a consistent supporter of China’s development and integration into the global community.

24. China needs to dispel anxieties over its long-term intentions and behaviour as a global power.

25. One reason could be due to the West’s concerns of a large, powerful, non-Western country under a socialist political system that has not liberalised along with economic reforms.

26. This is further complicated by the fact that China has grown rapidly into a huge elephant. I once shared with Premier Wen Jiabao that no matter how gentle the Chinese elephant was, it had to be very careful with every move it made when in the same pool with other animals. Smaller animals could be hurt or squeezed out of the pool even though the elephant had no such intentions. Of course, the other animals must also recognise the elephant’s right to drink and grow in the same pool. But alas, it is not just the smaller animals. The big American elephant feels threatened too.

27. China could consider some of these options: First, assuage concerns that other countries may have over China’s rise. The Belt and Road Initiative is a forward-looking plan with the potential to help address Asia’s enormous infrastructure needs. At the recent BRI Forum in April, President Xi had pledged to make BRI clean, green, transparent, financially sustainable and inclusive. I believe, over time, China’s fulfilment of these commitments will address the negative allegations directed at the BRI. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank can be a positive example of how an institution, operated in a manner that meets the highest international standards, could help build greater economic linkages and address the growing demand for infrastructure in Asia and beyond.

28. Second, China could take on additional responsibilities and work to strengthen the international system that has benefited China, and the world, over the past few decades. For example, the WTO is ripe for a transformative change, and China could work with others to modernise and reform our global trading system.

29. In the South China Sea, where multiple overlapping claims remain contentious, China could reassure the international community that it will observe and uphold international law, including the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. China should continue to articulate its acceptance of the right of freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea, and its commitment towards peace, stability and peaceful resolution of disputes. This will help assuage worries over China’s intentions in the South China Sea, which has been an albatross around its neck in its interactions with the international community. The Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea is therefore an important opportunity for China to work with ASEAN Member States to build confidence and trust, prevent accidents, and manage any incidents on the ground within a rules-based order. At the same time, the negotiating parties should take into account the concerns of international stakeholders in this vital sea line of communication. I am glad that China and ASEAN Member States are making steady progress in the negotiations towards the COC.

Building Bridges

30. In closing, the “Voice of Moderation” should facilitate the process of developing strategic trust and cooperation between the US and China, even as the two compete. There are many global challenges that would benefit from the leadership of both global powers, such as climate change and terrorism. At the same time, we should work with the US and China to engage constructively with the rest of the world, to reassure the world of their intentions and enhance their global standing. ASEAN can, and is willing to, play a central role in this trust-building process.

31. Let me end my speech with another African proverb. “In the moment of crisis, the wise build bridges and the foolish build dams.”

32. If the US and China fail to build bridges, there may be a new Iron Curtain dividing the world. It may set us on a path with catastrophic consequences, and the Thucydides Trap may become a reality for our generation. But China is not ancient Athens and the US is not Sparta. An all-out conflict between them is also an existential threat to many other countries, whether they take sides or not.

33. Trust is the glue that binds us together in a shared future. If the US and China can restore mutual trust, supported by the “Voice of Moderation”, the world will benefit immensely from a stable global system for mutual peace and prosperity. Let us take action today to build that trust and secure our shared future.

世界和平論壇

北京

2019年7月9日

穩定國際秩序：共擔、共治、共享

（區域安全專題討論）

2. 亞洲面對的安全挑戰眾所周知。這些挑戰雖導致世界政治局勢升溫，但中美戰略競爭卻可能迫使地緣政治氣候出現變化。因此，所有國家、領導人和人民都必須出一份力，維護世界的和平與繁榮，保障我們的共同未來。

3. 我將從新加坡的視角討論這個課題。新加坡是一個小島國，與美國和中國有著廣泛、深厚的長期合作關係。我們也是一個沒有天然資源的彈丸小國， 因此國際貿易對我們很重要。一個和平的世界，對一個小國很重要。為了維護國家利益，我們秉持自己的原則，也支持基於規則的多邊全球秩序，並且與世界各國建立友誼，為世界作出貢獻。我們必須和其他國家建立友誼，但更重要的是，為了保持我們對他國的關聯，我們也得繼續扮演一個建設性的角色。

信任赤字

4. 今年的世界和平論壇在中美戰略信任赤字的陰影下舉行。我們面臨各種險境，包括被歷史束縛、被猜疑矇蔽、被錯誤觀念誤導以及被超級大國之間的零和博弈摧毀。

5. 美國公然稱中國為戰略競爭對手和修正主義勢力，進而採取措施，保護其可能面臨的國家安全威脅。美國也指責中國利用其開放市場佔盡美方的便宜，不給美國企業和出口同等機會進入中國市場。美國企業抱怨被迫轉讓技術，以及在華企業遭到不平等待遇。美國政府甚至指責中國從事商業間諜活動。另一方面，中國則點出了導致中美貿易赤字的結構性原因，以駁斥這些指控。中國也聲明，其技術發展源於自身的努力，以及和外企的合作。鑑於雙方目前的觀點，重建兩國之間的互信至關重要。

6. 中國國家主席習近平和美國總統特朗普近日在二十國集團大阪峰會舉行會晤，我為此感到高興。這是重要的一步，展示雙方最高領導人重啟談判的意願，這將使接下來中美官員之間磋商更具成效。更重要的是，中美雙方重啟對話，意味著至少在短期內，兩國不再以牙還牙地鬥下去，雙邊關係也不再陷入惡性循環。然而，互信不是一朝一夕就能建立的，還需要時間滲透到政府，乃至社會的各個層面。

7. 對於世界兩個最大經濟體之間的信任赤字，其他國家應該如何反應？這樣的情況讓我想起一句非洲諺語，“大象打架，小草遭殃”； 大國之間的衝突，往往殃及無辜小國。

8. 中國也有一句成語： “靜觀其變”。大國在爭鬥時，小國也可以選擇靜觀其變，採取被動的旁觀態度，觀察事態發展，才決定下一步行動。

9. 這兩種情況都不理想。

10. 小國也是這個世界的一份子。它們可以在塑造國際秩序方面，發揮獨立和積極的作用，也應該這麼做。小國應該與世界大國建立聯繫，並以朋友的身份，瞭解大國的地緣政治雄心、特質、力量和信用。有了這方面的理解，小國就能夠向大國傳達他們所關注的事項，並團結起來，一起勾勒出它們所渴望擁有的共同世界和未來 -- 一個安全、有保障以及和平的環境，讓所有國家，不論大小，都能在一個由共識驅動並基於規則的多邊體系中競爭與合作。

亞細安的故事

11. 現在，讓我和大家分享亞細安（東盟）各國之間如何建立起互信。亞細安的成員國非常多元，不論在幅員、種族、宗教、語言和政治制度方面都截然不同。有些成員國在過去互不信任，彼此之間甚至發生過戰爭。時至今日，成員國之間依然存在分歧。

12. 儘管如此，通過共識制定決策是亞細安模式的一個重要特點。這樣的決策過程雖然耗時，但建立共識是必要的，以便維護亞細安的極其多元，並結合區域和各國的長遠利益。

13. 因此，在過去的52年裡，我們逐漸克服了內部的分歧，共同為我們的人民創造更美好的生活。我們現在的共同願景是建立一個和平與繁榮的亞細安共同體。

14. 亞細安模式是通過對話建立信任。我相信，亞太地區領導人之間定期舉行類似的會晤，可以增進互信。印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪與習近平主席展開了幾次一對一非正式會晤，有助於促進中印兩國之間的信任。這是一個好主意。兩人會面長達多個小時，以更深入地認識彼此，瞭解彼此國家所面對的問題、挑戰，以及目標。

其他國家該如何應對？

15. 當有足夠的國家站在同一條陣線時，它們就可以發出響亮的聲音，比大象的嗥叫聲高亢。我把這些國家集體發出的聲音稱為“中道之聲”。

16. “中道之聲”不是一個集團或新的組織，而是關心世界局勢的國家、領導人、機構、媒體、企業和人民，大家希望發出共同的聲音，阻止美國和中國之間發生災難性衝突。它提倡戰略理性主義、和平與穩定、經濟增長與繁榮，也支持相互依存、開放、包容、以規則為基礎的國際秩序。我們只有一起發聲，世界大國才會注意我們。

17. 亞細安可以成為一個核心平臺，讓本區域國家就共同關心的課題一同發表看法，擴大來自本區域的“中道之聲”。

18. 我們可以做的不僅僅是發聲而已。“跨太平洋夥伴全面進展協定”和“區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定”等貿易協定，都是各國將共同價值觀轉化為實際行動的典範。

中國和美國未來的地位

19. 除了探討各國之間可以如何建立互信，攜手共創未來之外，我也想談一談目前各種趨勢如果持續下去，中美兩國未來的國際地位會受到怎樣的影響。

美國

20. 美國國內的發展，改變了美國政治領袖對其他國家的看法。無論是共和黨或民主黨，越來越多美國政治人物現在都把美國所面對的問題歸咎於全球化。

21. 美國對世界的看法已有所改變。美國曾認為它在世界各地部署軍力，保護其國際利益，是理所當然的事。然而，許多美國人民仍沒享受到全球化所帶來的好處。在這樣的情況下，美國的政治人物越發難以向民眾解釋，為什麼有些國家似乎是佔了美國的便宜而取得發展。美國因此希望其盟友和合作夥伴承擔更大的責任。

22. 我能夠理解要彌合這些分歧有多困難。其實，每一名國家領袖都應該把自己國家的利益放在第一位。可是，如果美國將自身的利益設定得太過狹隘，進而放棄其世界領導地位，那我就會感到擔憂。與美國關係友好的國家必須提醒美國，他們在創立多邊機構和以規則為基礎的世界秩序方面，曾扮演重要的角色，這讓全世界過去七十年來得以享有空前和平與繁榮。時代固然在改變，舊有的規則必須與時俱進，但是任何體制要行之有效，中美兩國就必須和其他國家共同合作，更新規則，而不是顛覆整個體制。同時，中美也必須將其他國家的利益考慮在內，不論這些國家的大小。

中國

23. 對於中國，我想以老朋友的身份坦誠地分享我的看法。我曾經多次訪華，也和多名中國領導人會晤，包括鄧小平先生和習近平主席等諸位國家領導人，以及李鵬和李克強等多位國務院總理。其實，我1971 年第一次來到中國。一直以來，新加坡都支持中國的發展，也支持中國融入國際社會。

24. 作為世界強國，中國必須消除其他國家對其言行和長期目標的擔憂。

25. 外界對中國崛起感到擔憂的一個原因可能來自西方國家對中國的顧慮。西方國家視中國為西方世界以外的強大社會主義國家，其政治體系並沒有隨著經濟改革而進一步開放。

26. 這樣的情形也因為中國已迅速發展成一頭巨象而變得更加複雜。我曾經和溫家寶總理說過，中國這頭大象無論多麼溫順，它和其他動物共處同一個池子裡時，一舉一動都必須格外小心，避免無意間傷害到其他體型較小的動物，甚至把他們擠出池外。當然，其他動物也必須意識到，中國這頭巨象一樣有權利在同一個池子裡喝水、成長。不單是較小的動物覺得受到威脅，美國這頭巨象也覺得如此。

27. 要讓外界安心，中國可以考慮以下做法。首先，中國必須設法消除其他國家對其崛起的擔憂。中國的“一帶一路”倡議是一項具前瞻性的計劃，能夠滿足亞洲對基礎設施的巨大需求。在今年4月舉行的“一帶一路”國際合作高峰論壇上，習近平主席在其演講中承諾，“一帶一路”倡議將堅持廉潔、綠色及透明理念、在經濟上可持續，也具有包容性。我相信，隨著時間的推移，中國將能兌現這些承諾，這也將有助於回應一些國家針對“一帶一路”倡議所做出的負面指責。亞洲基礎設施投資銀行就是一個正面的例子，說明一個按照最高國際標準運作的機構如何能協助本區域擴大經濟聯繫，以及應付亞洲和世界其他地區對基礎設施日益增長的需求。

28. 其次，中國可以承擔更多責任，並進一步加強一些國際體系，這些體系在過去數十年讓中國和全世界受惠。例如，世界貿易組織進行轉型的時機已經成熟，中國可以和其他國家合作，共同推動全球貿易體系的現代化和轉型。

29. 另外，各國對南中國海的主權聲索不但相互重疊，而且仍然存有爭議。為了讓國際社會放心，中國可以重申將遵守並維護國際法，包括1982年的《聯合國海洋法公約》。中國也應繼續表明接受南中國海域的航行自由和其上空飛越自由的權利，以及中國致力於維護和平與穩定，並承諾以和平方式解決爭端。這將有助於緩解國際社會對中國在南中國海的意圖的擔憂，而南中國海爭議一直是中國同國際社會互動的一個重大阻礙。因此，《南中國海行為準則》為中國提供一個與亞細安成員合作的契機，雙方能通過這個框架，共同建立信心與信任、防止意外事故的發生，以及在以規則為基礎的秩序下處理任何實地事故。與此同時，談判各方也應把國際利益相關者對這一重要海上通訊線路的關注考慮在內。令人欣慰的是，中國和亞細安成員國就《南中國海行為準則》所進行的磋商正取得穩步的進展。

搭建互信的橋樑

30. 即使中美兩國處於競爭狀態，我們還是應該以“中道之聲”促進兩國建立戰略互信與合作。兩個世界強國合作，將能引領全球應付氣候變化、恐怖主義等多個全球性挑戰。與此同時，我們應該和中美兩國進行合作，促使它們與世界各國進行建設性的互動，讓外界更清楚瞭解它們所要落實的目標。如此一來，中美兩國不但能消除各國對它們的疑慮，還能提高它們在國際上的地位。在這個建立信任的過程中，亞細安可以並願意發揮核心作用。

31. 讓我以另一句非洲諺語結束我的演講：危急時刻，智者搭橋，愚者築牆（In the moment of crisis, the wise build bridges and the foolish build dams）。

32. 如果中美兩國無法搭建互信的橋樑，就可能形成新的鐵幕，分化世界。這可能帶來災難性的後果。我們這一代人或許就無法避開“修昔底德陷阱”（ Thucydides Trap ）。所幸，中國不是古雅典，美國也不是斯巴達。即便如此，中美兩國如果發生全面衝突，都將對其他國家的存在構成威脅，不論它們有沒有選邊站。

33. 信任把大家凝聚在一起，為了共同未來而努力。如果中國和美國能夠在“中道之聲”的支持下恢復互信，世界將大大受惠於一個穩定的全球體系，以促進各國的和平與繁榮。讓我們今天就採取行動，建立這樣的互信關係，保障我們的共同未來。